May Arabica coffee traded on Tuesday closed up 5.20 cents/pound and Robusta coffee closed up $31/ton
Thus, Arabica coffee increased to its highest level in the past year and a half and Robusta coffee continued to hold the mark of over $4,000 per ton, which is a symbolic high mark of all time.
Currently, the market is considered to have officially entered the July trading period when the May trading expiration date will fall on April 25. However, in the real market, the May price has long been no longer used for trading.
News that in Brazil’s Robusta Conillon coffee growing areas, the 2024 harvest has begun. The weather in Robusta growing areas is said to be sunny, with moderate temperatures from 25-31 degrees Celsius, favorable for harvesting.
Brazil’s 2023/2024 coffee crop (collected in July 2023), expected to reach about 69 million bags, is expected to reach an export level of about 45 million bags per total crop year. Meanwhile, Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption is estimated to be stable this year at about 22 million bags.
Brazil’s upcoming July 2024 to June 2025 coffee crop has been estimated by independent forecasters at an average of about 68 million bags, including about 45.5 million bags of Arabica and 22 50 million bags of Conilon Robusta Coffee.
The view from many previous reports is that the new Conillon Robusta crop will be equal to or slightly better than last year’s output, potentially exceeding domestic market demand and boosting potential Conillon Robusta exports. to consumer markets. Support the building of consumer reserves in countries consuming Conillon Robusta coffee.
There is very little outstanding basic news coming to the market from the main Arabica coffee producing regions of Colombia, Central America, and Mexico. The coffee harvest season in this region starts from October of the previous year to September of the following year. Halfway through the journey and the coffee is reaching consumers.
Stocks of certified graded Arabica coffee held on the New York coffee market are said to have decreased by 15,105 bags yesterday, placing the stock at 624,545 bags.
Because both markets are currently being strongly guided by basic information such as drought in producing countries, transportation disorders due to red sea instability, leading to the phenomenon of holding goods by Farmers. etc…so technical information is often ignored during this time to follow the real market.
However, we would like to list out some obvious statistical information that investors on the floor need to pay close attention to as follows:
- Technical forecasts for Arabica prices in May a few days ago said that this market price could reach 240 cents. Now it seems to have failed, when yesterday session only reached 239.5 cents but did not hold. get that level.
- Prices during the session increased but trading volume was below average, reaching just over 12,000 lots in May.
- Meanwhile, the July price, which is the current trading month, closed as a red candle.
- July prices have had 5 consecutive weeks (to date) of continuous increases, the most recent record of continuous increases for 6 consecutive weeks was in February 2023 and then prices decreased to 15 cents in 5 weeks. Since then, the market has usually only increased for 2 consecutive weeks at most. Please note that in the coffee market, it is very rare for the coffee market to increase for 5 consecutive weeks.
Kinh Vu (giacaphe.com)
