Prices of two coffee products simultaneously skyrocketed yesterday thanks to main support from concerns about supply problems in the world’s two leading coffee producing countries, Brazil and Vietnam. Accordingly, Arabica coffee prices increased by 4% to more than 6,400 USD/ton, setting a new peak since 2011; Robusta coffee prices increased 3.05% to nearly 4,800 USD/ton, returning to the highest level in more than 1 month.
In Brazil, rainfall has been consistently below average since April, harming coffee plants during the critical flowering period and reducing prospects for the 2025-2026 Arabica coffee crop.
Consulting firm StoneX predicts that Brazilian coffee output in the 2025-2026 crop year will decrease by 0.4% compared to the current crop due to the impact of prolonged drought during the flowering period. Specifically, the South American country’s 2025-2026 Arabica coffee output decreased by 10.5% compared to the previous crop, down to 40 million 60kg bags.
In Vietnam, according to the General Department of Customs, the volume of coffee exported in our country in the first half of November was only 20,933 tons, down 45% and 3% respectively compared to the same period in 2023 and the first 15 days of October/ 2024.
Normally in previous years, export volume in November gradually increased when farmers entered the main harvest period. However, this year’s data reflect an unusual phenomenon. The market is concerned that new crop coffee output will be pushed to the market later than usual, causing a general supply shortage, thereby creating support for prices.
Furthermore, in recent crop years, Vietnamese coffee output has continuously declined due to harsh weather. Many organizations predict that output in the 2024-2025 crop year may decrease by 10-15%, affecting export activities.
Currently, despite being in the main harvest phase, Vietnam’s coffee industry still faces risks from the La Nina phenomenon expected to appear in the last months of the year, which can cause heavy rains, disrupting harvest and reduce output.
Coffee prices have had a downward adjustment rhythm
