The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that global coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop year will reach 171.4 million bags, while consumption will be at a record level of 169.5 million bags. World coffee inventories are expected to fall to a 12-year low of 26.5 million bags.
According to a recent report from USDA, global coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop year is forecast to reach 171.4 million bags (60 kg/bag), an increase of 4.2%, equivalent to 6.9 million bags compared to the previous year. previous crop year.
Increased production in key Arabica producing countries such as Brazil, Colombia and Ethiopia is expected to offset the decline in Indonesia, one of the main robusta producing countries in Southeast Asia.
With this forecast, global Arabica coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop year is expected to increase by 9.4 million bags to 97.3 million bags. In contrast, robusta decreased for the second consecutive year to 74.1 million bags compared to 76.6 million bags in the previous crop year and was the lowest level in the last four crop years.
In addition, global coffee exports are expected to increase by 8.4 million bags compared to the previous crop year to 119.9 million bags, mainly thanks to increased shipments from Brazil.
At the same time, global coffee consumption is forecast at a record 169.5 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year. End-of-season inventories are expected to continue to tighten and decrease to only 26.5 million bags, the lowest level in the past 12 years.
Brazil: In the 2023-2024 crop year, Brazil’s coffee production is forecast to increase by 3.7 million bags to 66.3 million bags. Mainly due to Arabica coffee production increasing by 5.1 million bags to 44.9 million bags.
Arabica coffee trees in many Brazilian production regions continue to recover after the severe frost, high temperatures and below-average rainfall that occurred in 2021 caused coffee production to decline in the 2021-2022 crop year and 2022-2023.
Despite this, Brazilian Arabica coffee production is still significantly lower than the peak of nearly 50 million bags of previous crop seasons.
On the contrary, Brazil’s robusta coffee output is forecast to decrease for the first time after 6 consecutive years of growth with a decrease of 1.4 million bags to 21.4 million bags. Reduced rainfall and low temperatures during the flowering period reduced yields in Espirito Santo state, Brazil’s main robusta coffee producing region.
Green coffee exports from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter, are forecast to recover and increase by 7.3 million bags compared to the previous crop year to 39.5 million bags, driven by higher supply. and increased import demand from the US and EU.
Data released by the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (CECAFE) shows that Brazil’s green coffee exports in the first 5 months of the 2023-2024 crop year (July to November 2023) increased by 18.7 % compared to the same period in the 2022-2023 crop year to 17.3 million bags.
Of which, robusta exports skyrocketed 420.9% to 3.4 million bags; Arabica coffee remained unchanged at 13.97 million bags.
Vietnam: Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is forecast to increase by 300,000 bags compared to the previous crop year to 27.5 million bags, with nearly 95% of that being robusta coffee.
USDA forecasts that Vietnam’s robusta coffee production in the 2023-2024 crop year will be about 26.6 million bags, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous crop year; while arabica decreased by 11.1% to 880,000 bags.
However, Vietnam’s total supply is still lower than the previous crop year because the inventory in the 2022-2023 crop year only reached 390,000 bags, a sharp decrease from 3.58 million bags in the 2021-2022 crop year.
Therefore, Vietnam’s green coffee exports are forecast to decrease by 2.4 million bags to 23 million bags. Inventories at the end of the 2023-2024 crop year are expected to remain low at 359,000 tons.
Colombia: Colombia’s Arabica coffee production is forecast to increase by 800,000 bags to 11.5 million bags thanks to higher yields. Even so, Colombia’s output is still nearly 15% below the annual average as coffee growers limit fertilizer use due to high prices.
Colombia mainly exports coffee to the US and EU, the country’s coffee exports are forecast to increase by 1.2 million bags to 10.8 million bags due to strong demand.
Indonesia: Indonesia’s coffee output is forecast to decrease by 2.2 million bags compared to the previous crop year, down to 9.7 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year.
Mainly due to robusta production decreasing by 2.1 million bags to 8.4 million bags. Too much rain during coffee fruit development has reduced yields in the lowlands of South Sumatra and Java, which account for about 75% of Indonesia’s robusta area. Arabica coffee output is also forecast to decrease slightly to 1.3 million bags.
With this forecast, Indonesia’s green coffee exports are expected to decrease by 2.7 million bags to only 5 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year.
India: In India, coffee production is forecast to remain almost unchanged compared to the previous crop year, at 6 million bags. Bean exports are forecast to increase by 300,000 bags to 4.3 million bags due to a slight decrease in inventories.
In the 2023-2024 crop year, India’s Arabica coffee output is forecast to decrease by 200,000 bags to 1.4 million bags, mainly due to the prolonged drought from December 2022 to March 2023 and then the Weak movements of monsoon rains. While robusta production is expected to increase by 300,000 bags to 4.5 million bags thanks to higher yields.
Imports increase in most major consuming countries in the 2023-2024 crop year
In general, coffee imports from most major consumer markets are forecast to increase in the 2023-2024 crop year.
USDA forecasts that the European Union’s (EU) green coffee imports will recover and increase by more than 2.5 million bags compared to the previous crop year to a record 47 million bags in the 2023-2024 crop year, mainly due to exports. Stronger imports from Brazil. While roasted and instant coffee imports remained unchanged at 1.4 million bags and 3.7 million bags.
EU coffee imports are mainly unroasted green coffee, accounting for about 90% of the proportion. The region’s top suppliers in the 2022-2023 crop year (October to September) include Brazil (32%), Vietnam (26%), Uganda (7%) and Honduras (6%).
The EU imported a record 49.1 million bags in the 2021-2022 crop year, but decreased by 2.6 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop year due to a sharp drop in imports from Brazil, although partly offset by an increase from Vietnam.
The fact that the EU imports more coffee from Vietnam and reduces purchases from Brazil, shows that roasters tend to use more robusta. These two countries accounted for 54 – 58% of the EU’s total green coffee imports over the past 10 years, leaving a limited market share for other suppliers.
During the same period, Uganda’s coffee exports to the EU increased by 1.2 million bags to a total of 3.4 million bags due to increased production; while Colombia decreased by 500,000 bags to 1.8 million bags due to reduced production.
Similarly, EU roasted coffee imports only reached 1.4 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop year, down from a record 2.1 million bags four years ago due to reduced imports from Switzerland. The top suppliers of roasted coffee to the EU include Switzerland (77%) and the UK (13%).
However, EU instant coffee imports increased by 300,000 bags to 3.7 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop year. The top instant coffee suppliers to the EU include the UK (34%), Vietnam (12%), India (12%) and Ecuador (10%).
While imports from the UK have remained virtually unchanged at 1.3 million bags over the past decade, imports from India and Vietnam have increased by around 300,000 bags, reaching a total of over 400,000 bags each.
Also in this report, USDA adjusted its estimate of global coffee production in the 2022-2023 crop year to 164.5 million bags, down 5.5 million bags compared to the forecast given in June 2023. Similarly, exports also decreased by 4.9 million bags compared to the previous forecast to 111.6 million bags and inventories were 4 million bags lower, at 27.6 million bags.
Reduced output in Vietnam and Colombia, leading to a decline in exports, is the main reason for this adjustment. In addition, USDA adjusted EU coffee inventories by 3.3 million bags compared to the previous forecast to 9.3 million bags in the 2022-2023 crop year, due to stronger-than-expected consumption.
According to Doanhnhanvn.vn
