Source: Vneconomy.vn
In the wood and forest products industry, wood chip and pellet products have the same characteristic of providing heat and being used as fuel, not for producing wooden furniture or fine art products. These two products account for 22% of the total export turnover of wood and wood products.
WOOD CHIP EXPORTS DECREASED IN BOTH QUANTITY AND VALUE
According to the 2023 wood industry overview report recently announced by the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association, in 2023, Vietnam exported nearly 14.42 million tons of wood chips, reaching 2.22 billion USD, down 8.8%. in volume and 20.4 in value compared to 2022, accounting for 16.8% of the total export turnover of the wood industry.
Vietnam exports wood chips to 13 markets in 2023, however China and Japan are Vietnam’s two largest wood chip import markets, accounting for 92.4% of total volume and 92.2% of total turnover. our country’s exports.
In 2023, China imported more than 9.38 million tons of wood chips from Vietnam, equivalent to more than 1.435 billion USD; down 11.8% in volume and 25.2% in value compared to 2022. Meanwhile, Japan imported 3.94 million tons of wood chips from Vietnam, worth nearly 610 million USD; down 10.1% in volume and 15.7% in value compared to 2022.
Besides, Korea and Taiwan also import a relatively large amount of wood chips from Vietnam. In particular, Korea’s import volume increased by 12.2% compared to 2022, but because wood chip prices decreased sharply in 2023, the total turnover decreased slightly by 1.1%. For the Taiwan market, both total volume and total turnover will decline heavily: down 37.7% in volume and 41.5% in value compared to 2022.
Wood chip export prices to three markets: China, Japan, and Korea have relatively similar developments with a strong increase throughout 2022 and early 2023, but cool down from the second quarter of 2023 and gradually stabilize. towards the end of the year.
Specifically, as of December 2023, the export price of wood chips to China is only approximately 149 USD/ton, down 24% compared to the ceiling of 198 USD/ton in 2022. Similarly, the export price to Japan in December 2023 only reached 145 USD/ton, down 24% compared to the peak of 191 USD/ton the previous year.
Compared to the above two markets, the average export price in the Korean market has a larger fluctuation range, skyrocketing to 242 USD/ton in November 2022 but then continuously falling deeply to 136 USD/ton. in September 2023. However, since October 2023, this market has shown signs of recovery as the price of wood chips has increased sharply, reaching more than 172 USD/ton in December 2023.
Commenting on the wood chip market trend in 2024, Dr. To Xuan Phuc, Executive Director of the Forest Products Trade Policy Program, Forest Trends Organization, said that the demand for wood chip imports in China will tend to increase. will continue to decline in the near future, leading to a decrease in chip export prices in this market.
KOREAN AND JAPAN ARE STILL THE TWO LARGEST IMPORTING MARKET FOR TABLETS OF VIETNAM
Regarding the export situation of pellets in 2023, the Vietnam Wood and Forest Products Association said it will reach 4.67 million tons, export turnover of 679.59 million USD, down 4.3% in volume and 13.7% in value compared to 2022, accounting for 5.2% of the total export turnover of the wood industry.
Compared to the period of record price increases in 2022, the average export price of pellets in 2023 has decreased by 9.7%. Pellet prices continue to decrease from nearly 190 USD/ton at the end of 2022 to only approximately 135-140 USD/ton from April 2023.
Vietnam’s tablet products are exported to 22 countries and territories in 2023. Of these, Korea and Japan are still Vietnam’s two largest tablet import markets, accounting for 96%. total volume and 96.6% of the country’s total export turnover.
In 2023, Japan imported more than 2.8 million tons of pellets from Vietnam, equivalent to more than 438 million USD, an increase of 12.4% in volume and 14.3% in value compared to 2022. While Meanwhile, Korea imported just over 1.7 million tons of pellets from Vietnam, worth nearly 214 million USD, down 24.5% in volume and 43.3% in value compared to 2022. Causes of export Tablet exports to Korea decreased sharply because Korean businesses had other sources of supply, such as cheap pellets from Russia.
The EU is Vietnam’s third largest pellet export market in 2023, with a volume of 155.11 thousand tons, equivalent to 25.91 million USD, accounting for 3.3% in volume and 3.8% in value. Vietnamese tablets exported to markets. Although the EU only accounts for a small proportion of Vietnam’s pellet import markets, it is on a strong growth trajectory: nearly 3 times more in volume and 3.7 times more in value compared to 2022.
The amplitude of decline in pellet export prices in the Korean market is much larger than that in Japan. Specifically, as of December 2023, the export price of pellets to Korea is just under 105 USD/ton, down 43% compared to the peak of 185 USD/ton in December 2022. In contrast, the export price to Japan in December 2023 still reached over 148 USD/ton, only down 20% compared to the ceiling price recorded in December 2022.
Commenting on the pellet export market trend in 2024, Dr. To Xuan Phuc believes that the Japanese market will continue to play an important role in the Vietnamese pellet industry in the coming time. Vietnamese businesses also have the opportunity to replace the supply of pellets from Indonesia for the Japanese market because the supply of pellets made from palm oil shells originating from Indonesia may not achieve the required sustainability certification. of the Japanese market. However, thermal power plants in Japan will suffer losses without subsidies from the government. Therefore, Japan’s import demand is not expected to increase in the short term.
Meanwhile, the pellet market in Korea is not expected to have many changes in the near future because the country’s importers prioritize cheap pellet sources.
“One of the biggest difficulties in pellet export is the unsustainability of input wood sources, both in quantity and in terms of standards and quality. To solve these difficulties, the Government requires Reasonable policy mechanisms, especially policies on balance between processing capacity and planted forest material areas.
Dr. To Xuan Phuc, Executive Director of Forest Products Trade Policy Program, Forest Trends Organization.
The EU market is considered very potential for tablet products, however the requirements of this market are more stringent than those of Japan and Korea, requiring businesses to invest a lot of money to improve equipment and technology. technology in the future.
“To reduce dependence on the Korean and Japanese markets, pellet businesses need to learn and promote consumption in new markets such as the EU and domestic market. Currently, the demand for pellets (and wood chips) for domestic consumption is likely to increase in the future due to the commitment to reduce emissions by the Vietnamese Government and businesses voluntarily converting from waste-emitting raw materials. premium tablets, especially if the Government issues policies to encourage the conversion”, Dr. To Xuan Phuc recommended.
According to data from the General Department of Forestry, in 2023 the whole industry will exploit about 19 million steles of firewood, which is the main input material for wood chip and pellet production. In addition, by-products of the wood processing and manufacturing industry (wood scraps, wood chips, shavings, sawdust…) are also used to produce wood pellets and chips.
Competition between exported pellets and domestic consumption in terms of raw materials will take place in the near future. Competition for raw materials from planted forests between businesses in the pellet industry as well as with wood chip manufacturing businesses is inevitable, especially in the context of a series of pellet and chip factory projects. Wood is being built over the next 3-5 years.
Therefore, according to Dr. To Xuan Phuc, businesses and management agencies need to consider investing in building raw material sources to ensure a stable supply for production and export.
