The Department of Agro-Processing and Market Development forecasts that in the short term, Vietnam’s pepper exports will be more favorable when major import markets such as the US and India are showing signs of recovery.
Pepper exports remained bleak in the first 9 months of the year
According to the Department of Agro-Processing and Market Development, the volume of pepper exported in September 2020 is estimated at 18 thousand tons with a value of $ 45 million, bringing the volume and value of pepper exports in the first 9 months of 2020. reached 220 thousand tons and 489 million USD, down 5.8% in volume and 17.6% in value over the same period in 2019.
The market with a significant decrease in pepper export value was India (down 46.4%). The average export price of pepper in the eight months of 2020 will reach US $ 2,198 / ton, down 13.6% over the same period in 2019.
In August, pepper exports to the US and India both decreased in value and output. Specifically, in the US, Vietnam’s pepper exports reached 4.5 thousand tons, equivalent to 11.5 million USD, down 3% in volume and 7% in value over the same period in 2019.
Although pepper exports to the US decreased slightly in both value and output, export prices in August 2020 increased slightly to $ 2,556 / ton, up 1% compared to July, but still decreased by 4. % over the same period last year.
Price movements of black and white pepper exports of Vietnam from the beginning of 2020 to September 17. Source: Import and Export Department
The increase in export prices was due to the increasing trend of pepper prices in the world markets due to more active trading activities in the markets. Pepper prices from Sri Lanka, Indonesia or Brazil to the US all increased by 300-400 USD / ton.
Currently, the PMI index – a measure of US production and service activities increased to 54.7 points, the highest in 18 months showing that the US economy is showing signs of recovery.
In the Indian market, exports in August reached 532 tons, equivalent to 1.32 million USD, down 53% in volume and 48% in value over the same period last year. The COVID-19 epidemic paralyzed the country’s import and export activities.
However, the upcoming festive season in India is likely to boost demand for pepper even higher than before. Pepper purchasing activities have started to increase in India as economic activity is gradually recovering.
In the domestic market, pepper prices still tend to increase in September 2020. Specifically, compared to the previous month, pepper prices in Ba Ria Vung Tau increased by 1,000 VND / kg to 51,000 VND / kg.
Pepper prices in Dak Lak and Dak Nong increased by 500 VND / kg to 49,000 VND / kg. Pepper prices in Dong Nai increased by 1,000 VND / kg to 48,500 VND / kg. Pepper prices in Gia Lai increased by 500 VND / kg to 48,000 VND / kg.
Talking to the writer, Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice Chairman of Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai) said that the cycle of falling pepper prices is showing signs of ending and supply is gradually short of supply.
“Partners in other countries started asking to buy back to prepare for year-end orders. In addition, Vietnam’s pepper output has decreased significantly due to the fact that trees died or people did not invest in care. This also affects the world supply ”, Mr. Binh said.
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam’s pepper production accounts for about 50% of the world production. Therefore, fluctuations in Vietnamese pepper production greatly affect global supply.
Exporting pepper in the short term will be more favorable
The Department of Agro-Processing and Market Development forecasts that in the short term, Vietnam’s pepper exports will be more favorable when major import markets such as the US and India are showing signs of recovery.
Besides, EVFTA also opens up many opportunities for Vietnamese pepper industry in the EU market. Vietnam’s pepper export prices will also increase with the increasing trend of world pepper prices.
Import and Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), forecasts global pepper prices will increase in the near future. Indonesia is expected to finish the harvest by the end of September 2020.
Vietnam’s pepper production is expected to decrease by 15% in 2020 and to decrease by 10-15% in 2021.
Along with that, China boosted buying volume after June 3, July and August 3 imported moderately. In addition, the demand for Indian pepper increased due to the recovery of economic activity and the upcoming Festival season in India may boost the demand for pepper to increase.
According to VietnamBiz
