For 13 consecutive years in the “queen” in the “world pepper export village”, Vietnam's pepper is at its most glorious period. The development plan for this industry, which was recently issued in late June, has revealed unreality …
It is plausible that strategic planners assert that development planning must be based on market demand, exploiting the advantages of land, water, climate and weather to develop in the direction of commodity production. , focused, efficient and sustainable … But, it seems that planners are contradicting themselves in the development goals and planning directions.
Discipline or pretend to ignore?
Vietnam's pepper is a particularly competitive crop, the world market is very attractive, the export price of pepper is at a record high level, making farmers grow big profits. So not only farmers, but perhaps even local authorities are ignoring the order to remove more than 20% of the planned pepper area.
First of all, if the pepper growing area in 2013 increased with the area for harvesting as announced, the total area would have reached more than 62,000ha, ie an increase of about 12,000ha (23.8%) in the last four years. here. Compared to the plan to 2020 and vision to 2030, the pepper area maintains and is stable at 50,000 ha, so what should the aforementioned increase be?
Why has the pepper area soared in such a short time? It can be affirmed with certainty that due to the sharp increase in pepper export prices in recent years. If the price of pepper exported in 2006 was only 1,632 USD / ton, in 2007 doubled to 3,269 USD / ton, the first half of this year was 7,156 USD / ton. This is a great motivation to push farmers to develop pepper.
Revenue from pepper is higher than any other perennial industrial crops, each hectare of pepper reached more than 14,200 USD, 5.2 times higher than coffee, 5.6 times higher than rubber and 8 times higher. with tea and cashew. Obviously with such revenue, it is certain that the “judgment” of sharply reducing the current “huge” profit area to switch to crops with lower sales is too difficult for farmers to accept, if not to say. is impossible.
Can prices rise forever?
Is the price of pepper so hot thanks to our country's pepper industry that has managed to regulate world prices, in which the first belongs to farmers, as many opinions have affirmed? The statistics are sufficient to allow the assertion that this is only sufficient condition, when necessary conditions have emerged.
First of all, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the world pepper area in 2012 has decreased to 540,000ha (from 640,000ha in 2006), which is down to 15.7%. This is the main reason why the world pepper output in 2012 was only 461,000 tons, still down 5,000 tons compared to the previous record of 466,000 tons six years, due to the increase in productivity in the same period.
According to IPC estimates, world pepper output this year has decreased due to crop failures and will almost return to the level achieved in 2006. Thus, the world pepper output in the last seven years has almost “stampeded”. feet in place. ” Means a scarce supply makes prices constantly hot.
In the context of the supply-demand balance in favor of such exporting countries, with a market share of approximately 39% in recent years, the pepper farmers in our country have not sold massively in those times. At certain points, they have taken advantage of the opportunities that the market offers.
Because, if the area and output of the world pepper increased sharply as in previous years, the price of pepper continued to stand at a low level, even if the export volume was regulated, they certainly would not have any miracles. to push export prices to budge.
According to the rules of the world commodity market, after a long period of hot rise, prices will accelerate production to increase sharply, leading to a situation where supply is greater than demand, prices will plummet also for a long enough period. , a cycle of two similar hot and cold phases will be repeated. That has been proven in the last three decades. The pepper market has gone through two cycles of hot – cold fever 1985-1993 and 1994-2005, from 2006 until now the hot fever period.
Meanwhile, with a total stable output of 140,000 tons as planned to 2020 and a vision to 2030 and an export target of 1.2-1.3 billion USD, the export price of pepper our country must at least reach USD 8,600-9,300 / ton, which will increase by 30-40% compared to 2013.
Although this goal is also supported by quality improvement and restructuring, but after the fever phase has entered the current eighth year, no one can be sure that world pepper prices will continue to rise sharply. like nowadays. And if the price continues to increase so hot, surely our farmers will put even more effort to develop pepper, so the goal of reducing the area will be even further.
Which way?
As mentioned above, although pepper prices this year have turned into the eighth year of hot fever, which follows the rule of “hot” will be “cold”. But there are also predictions that it is likely that the “hot” cycle will last for about three or four years and will reach a record for fever time since the 1960s.
The main reason for such speculation is that Asia accounts for nearly 90% of the area and 84% of world pepper production is facing the El Nino risk, so it is difficult to recover quickly in the short term. .
In particular, as the FAO statistics show, while the pepper area of the “giant” India recorded a record more than 260,000ha in 2006, accounting for 40.7% of the total world area, but five. 2012 is still close to the bottom of 185,000ha.
Besides, another “giant” in terms of pepper area is Indonesia with nearly 179,000ha (2012) also has a modest productivity at 58% of the world's average yield, so the ability to quickly it is not easy to recover a huge area of waste.
Under such conditions, with the superiority of 2.34 times the world average yield and 4 times that of Indonesia, even 6.9 times of India …, it is clear that the competitiveness of pepper Our country is especially big.
That fact may allow us to assert that our country's farmers have greatly increased the area of pepper since the late 1990s, even increasing massively even in the cold pepper years of the world. and always win the “rear” in the “world pepper export village” to benefit the world price of hot pepper from 2006 to now is the right choice.
In such a context, it is difficult to force farmers to reduce acreage sharply. Accepting the existing area, or even increasing it, increases the productivity by a half and a half as the set target should be based on the calculation and good market forecasting capacity of professionally qualified staff. solid service.
Reducing area and production in the heat of world price is still ahead is not an easy decision. But clearly, in the current leading position, an effort to do well besides productivity and commodity restructuring is the branding and image for “Vietnamese pepper”, improving added value. and competitiveness in the world market.
Thousands of pepper Highlands
Broken planning
Actual price of pepper in the garden in Gia Lai fluctuates at VND 190,000-200,000 / kg, continuing to prolong the pepper fever where the largest area of pepper growing in the country. According to the provincial plan, by 2020, the pepper area of the whole province will be 6,000 ha but only in the middle of this year will exceed 10,000 ha.
Talking about this situation, Mr. Le Van Linh, deputy director of Gia Lai Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, said: “There are five years left until the final point of the provincial pepper planning but now there are nearly 10,000 hectares of pepper already. We try to control and recommend people but can not control.
He also said that Gia Lai currently does not have a centralized pepper processing plant, outputs for products and associated agricultural extension support (plant protection, disease prevention, market search). School …) is not really strong, so the destruction of pepper is creating immediate risks: the price of the crop falls down, the crop's loss is high.
Gia Lai has a famous pepper cultivation region, carrying out procedures to register the trademark protection of Chu Se pepper. In this locality, pepper helped farmers change their lives, many households earn billions from pepper gardens. Mr. Ho Phuoc Binh – representative of Chu Se Pepper Association (Chu Se district) – said that the current area of Chu Se own pepper has reached nearly 2,500ha.
According to calculations of people here, an average of 1ha sold from 700-800 million, except for the cost of firmly holding 400-500 million. This attraction caused many farmers in Chu Se, Chu Prong, Dak Doa, Duc Co … districts of Gia Lai province to cut other gardens to plant pepper.
However, there are also many households tasting bitter fruits from this crop. Mr. Le Dinh Han, a farmer in hamlet 5, Ia Pal commune, Chu Se district, said that he used to plant 900 pepper posts in the past, collecting hundreds of millions dong each. By 2009, the family has increased by nearly 1.5ha to grow pepper. But then the “bitter fruit” began to strike. “Nearly 900 of my pillars were infected, died, how much money, effort away” – Mr. Han said.
Statistics of Gia Lai Department of Agriculture and Rural Development shows that in 2012 and 2013, the whole province had nearly 500ha of pepper died from fungal infection, in 2014 alone the area of dead pepper has increased to over 600ha and is on the rise.
Source Tuoi Tre Online
Source link
