It was like a joke when Luan returned to his old garden after a long time leaving the country to take his wife and children to Binh Duong to find a job. Because the Covid-19 epidemic was too “hot” and the factory closed, his family returned to Chu Pah (Gia Lai), both to avoid the epidemic and find a temporary way to make a living.
Pepper fell, many households were discouraged and did not care. Photo: NK
The thesis decided to leave the pepper garden with about 2,000 roots to go to the South to find a job when the pepper price started from 250,000 VND/kg and then the price dropped in batches, until 50,000-60,000 VND, many families gave up. . Hot loans and cold loans for investment, some households have a billion VND, some households have a few billion VND, it is common, to grow pepper, but facing the opposite situation, there is no way to pay. On the one hand, due to falling prices, many households are discouraged and don’t care, sad people and pepper trees also become sick, encountering when pepper trees in the area suffer from a “quick die, slow death” epidemic, they have to parting tears.
The story is that in the middle of last year, when the corona virus spread rapidly in the world, the price of pepper fell to the bottom, about 35,000 VND per kilogram, believed to be below the production cost. He felt joy in his stomach because his decision to go was right. But since then, the price of pepper has jumped up rapidly recently, reaching 90,000 VND and now stabilizing around 82,000 VND.
“You want to plant pepper again?”. Luan replied: “No, certainly not because I’m bored.”
In fact, many gardeners see that the pepper price is drying up, do not have time to think, immediately borrow money to buy land to build a garden when the price is 100,000-150,000 VND/kg, but before enjoying the high price above 200,000 VND, the price has gone. down a breath. Moreover, some people who lacked capital also participated in buying pepper to store to wait for the price to rise. Who was afraid that the price would drop dramatically, so not only did he not make the profit he wanted, he also had to sell his house and leave the garden like in his case.
Talking about the pepper market, more than anyone else, Mr. Luan and his friends in the same scene were all absorbed. The price of pepper every day dropping several thousand dong per kilogram is normal. Rich people who have money to buy and sell this item without cold blood sometimes also have a heart attack, let alone those who are losing money, it is easier to lack concentration to make a wise decision.
A young pepper trader with a large number of cheeks in the domestic market previously made some very reasonable comments: “Since mid-2015, when the domestic pepper price peaked at VND 250,000-270,000 per kilo, gram, then from then on, anyone who stores pepper and waits for the price… will all spend it, which is understandable. That is the time when pepper people say “the rich also cry”. The price of free fall until 2017 was only around 100,000 VND and… until the corona virus wreaked havoc, domestic pepper was only 35,000 VND. If we take the time of the first outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemic, it is also the time when the pepper price broke out, increasing to 60,000, 75,000 and then 90,000 dong. Thinking that the export trade was not much, then everyone was disappointed.
The price of pepper has regained its strength recently, hard to believe, but not thanks to the analysis of supply and demand of experts and skilled professionals in the world. It is the power of social networks such as Facebook, YouTube, Zalo… that have had great merit in transmitting to each other the psychology of increasing prices because on the one hand, pepper prices are below cost, on the other hand, they call on farmers not to sell hastily because of the price. The recovery of pepper can reach 150,000-200,000 VND/kg.
This information is very much approved by the giants of the industry because they have strongly stocked a few thousand to five thousand tons in the warehouse since the price fell below 50,000 dong onwards. At the bottom, news that the price increased was even more heated. Now there is another force that is reporting day and night that the price increases not only at 90,000 but also over 100,000 VND and may even reach a record peak as a way to promote to sell land, materials and sell pepper seeds… “.
That “s right! Although this item has a trading floor in India as a commodity, its scale is very small and has little influence on the world pepper market. When Vietnam did not have a floor, the exchange and the center of “broadcasting” of commodity information were social networks through which exchanges between customers, between pepper growers, just An announcement on Facebook or Zalo, is that the whole pepper community has access, from gardeners in the deep mountains to giants with huge processing warehouses in urban areas.
Besides, Vietnam is a country that provides over 50% of the world’s demand for pepper… it is social networks that have contributed greatly to farmers and black pepper traders from suffering the black life brought by the market. push. That said, although it is also an agricultural product with a high volume of trading and a large capital requirement, pepper is not regulated and dominated by financial investment funds like on other exchanges such as: sugar, wheat or coffee…
But 100% trust in social networks, a completely open playing field, mixed truths, sometimes a double-edged sword. When the intention of a certain giant wants the gardener to keep the goods, it is also possible to announce the price up as an opportunity for them to push the goods to the market quickly in order to get a high price if the network participants do not accept the decision. collect information thoroughly.
Mr. Luan’s pepper garden now has about fifty or seventy peppers, but in the immediate future, he swore to himself not to invest in pepper anymore. Now back to the old place, old scene, pocket with money but no shortage of work. Many friends and acquaintances are asking him to collect coffee, earning over a hundred thousand a day is said to be temporarily fine when returning to the old place to avoid the epidemic. Not only him, but many other people coming back from the city have the same thought as him: well, there are some pepper roots trying to take care of to have enough pocket money, but where is the money to expand the pepper area.
Just everyone who comes back will have the same thoughts as you, if you don’t expand the pepper area when the price is going up, then you can keep the price like it is now, so it’s easy to spend… pepper.
According to the International Pepper Association (IPC), pepper production in 2021 is estimated at 574,000 tons, down 3% compared to last year. In the first 10 months of this year, Vietnam exported nearly 230,000 tons. There are two more months left until the end of Vietnam’s 2021 pepper business year. Considering that Vietnam exports 30,000 tons for the rest of the time, the expansion of the area and the increase in pepper production is a big threat to the price of pepper even though Vietnam is “owning the situation” of this commodity in the world. world market.
To test Mr. Luan’s intention to see if it is certain, this writer believes that although the new crop year is coming, the price of pepper may still increase due to many factors such as inflation in many main consuming countries such as the US and EU… The quick answer is that even if it goes up to 100,000-120,000 VND/kg, it’s nothing compared to the price of petrol, fertilizer, transportation and labor. “I’ll stay like that for good!”. And secretly guess… That’s the decision of Luan that was right.
According to TheSaigontimes
