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According to estimates from the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in June 2024, Vietnam exported 85 thousand tons of coffee, worth 382 million USD, up 7.1% in volume and 12.5% in value compared to May 2024, compared to June 2023, down 40% in volume but up 0.4% in value.
In the first 6 months of 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports are estimated at 902 thousand tons, worth 3.22 billion USD, down 10.6% in volume, but up 34.5% in value over the same period last year.
The average export price of Vietnamese coffee reached 4,489 USD/ton in June 2024, up 5% compared to May 2024 and up 67.3% compared to June 2023. In the first 6 months of 2024, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee is estimated at 3,570 USD/ton, up 50.4% over the same period last year.
In the world market, coffee prices continue to increase sharply. At the same time, many analysts predict that this increase can be maintained in the following trading sessions. Specifically, the price of robusta futures for September 2024 on the London floor increased by 99 USD, equivalent to 2.2%, closing at 4,576 USD/ton, after reaching a record high of 4,681 USD/ton. Meanwhile, the price of arabica coffee for the same term on the New York floor increased by 0.5% to 244.85 US cents/lb.
Similarly, coffee prices in the domestic market recorded an increase of more than VND2,000. Accordingly, in Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Dak Nong, they are trading at the same level of VND128,000/kg. In Lam Dong province, the price is lower at VND127,400/kg.
Coffee prices have continued to rise due to concerns that drier-than-normal conditions could adversely affect coffee plants in Vietnam and Brazil, causing supply tensions. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), unfavorable weather combined with outbreaks of mealybugs and red spider mites will reduce the next Robusta crop in Vietnam by 15% to 20%.
Vicofa estimates that Robusta coffee output in the 2023/2024 crop will be around 26.7 million bags, while Vietnam’s next crop in 2024/2025 will be between 21.40 and 22.70 million bags. This figure is significantly lower than Volcafe’s previous preliminary forecast of 24 million bags and much lower than the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) recent estimate of 27.85 million bags.
In addition, there are still many factors supporting the increase in coffee prices, such as increased demand for coffee from European importers due to the trend of stockpiling inventories ahead of the deadline to comply with the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) standards. Along with that, businesses’ warehouses are almost empty, while the new harvest season will only begin in October.
With this increase in coffee prices, many experts and coffee businesses predict that the price of this billion-dollar commodity will soon surpass the historical peak of 134,000 VND/kg – recorded at the end of April 2024.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development forecasts that in 2024, coffee export turnover will certainly exceed 5 billion USD, and may even reach 6 billion USD – the highest level in history.
