The world lacks pepper, Vietnam benefits

The latest information shows that the world pepper market this year will have a serious shortage of supply and Vietnam’s pepper farmers will benefit. In fact, the domestic pepper price is currently up to 95,000 VND/kg.

Currently, pepper price is at 95,000 VND/kg, but according to Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA), pepper price is still likely to increase to 110,000 – 120,000 VND/kg in the near future.

Pepper prices can reach more than $6,000/ton

Mr. Tran Duc Tung, Chief of Office of VPA said so on March 30. According to Mr. Tung, the world price of pepper increased largely due to the influence of the law of supply and demand because pepper production in pepper growing countries decreased but the world’s consumption demand increased.

“In the first 6 months of the year, only Vietnam and India were the two countries that harvested pepper and became the two main suppliers for the world market. This year, India’s pepper output has decreased, so pepper processing and distribution enterprises can only buy pepper from Vietnam. Therefore, right from the beginning of this year, the domestic pepper price increased from 70,000 VND to 95,000 VND/kg,” said Mr. Tung.

Another reason, according to Mr. Tung, is that unlike the years before the pepper harvest, pepper growers often sell massively, but in the past 2 years, people only sell when they need money and reserve it to sell in the next few months. year-end at a higher price. Therefore, pepper prices are always high.

According to VPA, this year’s pepper crop will end at the end of April, but world consumption demand will start to increase from the second quarter. Therefore, it is likely that the world pepper price will be at US$6,000/ton of pepper. black pepper and US$8,000/ton of white pepper (skull pepper).

Lack of supply, Vietnamese farmers benefit

Among the countries that grow the most pepper in the world, only Vietnam’s output this year is considered stable, while other countries such as India, Indonesia, China and Brazil plummeted. Immediately after having this information, plus the fact that some international companies in Dubai announced that they had bought a large amount of pepper from Vietnam, the world price of pepper rose sharply again.

In the Indian market, spot pepper prices increased by 300 rupees to 23,000 rupees per 100 kg (bucket type) and 23,800 rupees (MG1), while for May and June futures prices increased by 487 rupees and 463 rupees respectively. rates of 24,950 rupees / 100 kg and 25,255 rupees / 100 kg.

In the international market, Indian pepper price increased to $5,725-5,750/ton (C&F). It is forecasted that Indian pepper prices will continue to increase in the coming days.

The price of pepper from other origins also increased, contrary to the hopes of customers who have kept a wait-and-see attitude in the past few days in the hope that prices will drop.

Asta pepper prices on March 29 at $5,600/ton, compared with $5,500/ton a day earlier.

The pepper harvest in India is coming to an end but India does not have a big role in the world pepper market at the moment, because it consumes almost all of its own production.

From July onwards, the world pepper market will depend more on supply from Brazil and Indonesia. If the supply from these two sources is poor, the price could rise to $6,500/ton in the second half of this year.

Supply and demand

World pepper production this year is forecast to reach only 257,000 tons, compared with 290,700 last year. The remaining stock of the crop is about 40,000 tons, bringing the total supply to about 297,000 tons. Meanwhile, total consumption this year will increase by about 5% compared to 320,000 tons in 2010, which means a shortfall of 33,000 – 35,000 tons.

Demand for pepper is increasing globally, especially in the US, West Asia and Europe. Domestic demand in countries like India is also on an upward trend.