Many experts fear the increase in trade surplus is not necessarily due to increased export turnover but also due to much decrease in import turnover.
According to the data just announced by the General Department of Customs, the total value of goods import and export of Vietnam in the first 8 months of 2020 reached 336.92 billion USD. In which, the total export value reached 175.36 billion USD, up 2.3% and the total import value reached 161.9 billion USD, down 2.4% over the same period in 2019.
Thus, for the first 8 months of the year, the trade balance had a trade surplus of nearly 13.5 billion USD, nearly 2.5 times higher than the surplus of the same period in 2019 (5.47 billion USD). The figure of 13.5 billion USD can be said to be a record trade surplus of Vietnam, surpassing the export surplus of 9.9 billion USD of the whole year 2019.
Meanwhile, the trade surplus of 9.9 billion USD in 2019 was the highest level in 4 consecutive years of Vietnam’s trade surplus. Many experts believe that, in the current context of the Covid-19 epidemic, the trade surplus is more worrying than happy, the more worries the trade surplus is.
Many experts believe that, in the current context of the Covid-19 epidemic, the trade surplus is more worrying than happy, the more worries the trade surplus is.
According to TS. Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information (Ministry of Industry and Trade), Vietnam’s economy has always been in surplus in recent years, which is a good thing because it will help our country increase reserves. Forex. However, with the figure of trade surplus in the first eight months of 2020, there is a worrying point, when the increase in trade surplus is not due to the increase in export turnover but the decrease in imports.
“Imports of 90% of Vietnam are means of production, and imports of consumer goods are only 10%. Therefore, reducing import means reducing the import of production materials, but reducing the input of production materials will affect production in the future, so this is a worrying point ”, PhD. Le Quoc Phuong concerns and notes: Vietnam’s trade surplus is still mainly based on the FDI sector, while domestic enterprises still have a large trade deficit, up to more than 10 billion USD.
Recognizing the trade surplus in the past 8 months, trade expert Pham Tat Thang felt unsatisfied, because in just 8 months, the number of the trade surplus exceeded the previous years sounds positive, but this is This is an unhappy signal, which proves that the source of imported raw materials for Vietnamese production is currently in trouble.
“Until now, imports have mainly been inputs for the production process. This year, Vietnam could not import materials due to two reasons. The first is that there are no export orders, so there is no import. Second, when there is an export order, the supply chain of raw materials is broken, so it cannot import, ”this expert analyzed.
According to expert Pham Tat Thang, currently most businesses still mainly use raw materials stored before for export, sources of importing raw materials for the next period are still facing many difficulties. It is from this factor that leads to the story that Vietnam only exports but not imports.
Meanwhile, the trade surplus over the past time is mainly due to FDI enterprises thanks to them keeping orders, organizing the supply of raw materials for the production process. Although these enterprises are also affected by the Covid-19 outbreak, the level of supply breakdown is not as great as that of Vietnamese enterprises. “This once again shows that organizing supply chains in a sustainable direction is especially important,” said expert Pham Tat Thang.
Taking a closer look at Vietnam’s export surplus in the past 8 months, economist Tran Toan Thang noted, wanting to assess whether the trade surplus is positive or not need to pay attention to the total export turnover. and total imports. Specifically, in the past 8 months, the total export and import turnover have decreased compared to the same period last year with different decreases. This can be seen that the trade deficit in the first eight months of 2020 is due to the rapid decrease in imports, not due to the sharp increase in exports.
“Therefore, if the decrease in import data is due to the reduction of the amount of machinery and raw materials, such an export surplus is not a good thing. The decrease in imports may be due to the fact that businesses are underestimating the ability to continue exporting. This leads to the risk that the economic recovery after the epidemic will be more difficult. However, financially, a large trade surplus will help the country have more sources of foreign currency to stabilize the exchange rate ”, explained Mr. Tran Toan Thang.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam’s import and export of goods in the second half of 2020 will grow more positively than in the second quarter of 2020, especially after many countries begin to loosen their control measures. disease and began to accelerate the process of recovery, opening up.
In addition, from the beginning of August 2020, the implementation of the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) will create a good opportunity for exports in the last months of the year. When the disease is controlled in Europe, and the EVFTA Agreement has been put into effect, Vietnamese enterprises will have a great advantage from reducing / removing tariff barriers to the EU market to exploit this market. ./.
According to CafeF
