According to Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu, the SBV will hold a conference to review the banking industry’s activities at the end of this week. At the conference, the SBV will thoroughly understand the problem of credit growth of commercial banks.
Information about the “room” of credit is being interested and expected by the market when many banks have hit the growth ceiling right from the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
In previous years, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) often considered granting credit lines to banks at the beginning of the first quarter, and then adjusted 1-2 times to match operating objectives. Most recently, in 2021, the State Bank of Vietnam had two rounds of extending credit growth limits for banks: the first time took place in mid-July and the second time at the end of November.
At the Conference to implement the 2% interest rate support policy held on July 6, Standing Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu said that this weekend, the SBV will hold a conference to review the banking industry’s activities. the first month of the year and implementing tasks for the last 6 months of the year. At the conference, the SBV will thoroughly understand the problem of credit growth of commercial banks.
Previously, Mr. Tu said that right from the first credit “room” allocation, the SBV has realized that this year’s credit will increase much more strongly than last year. However, it is important to control credit growth to some extent to control inflation.
“Hot credit growth leads to difficult inflation control. In contrast, tightening credit cannot increase economic growth. Therefore, the “room” of credit must be satisfactorily resolved”, said the Deputy Governor: “Lifting the credit growth limit is a very necessary proposal of commercial banks. And the management agency will also consider, calculate and administer the amount of credit given to the economy. In which, credit growth must first be in line with the inflation control target, interest rate policy and other macro relationships; at the same time, creating room for the 2% interest rate support policy to be implemented”.
In the newly released market report, SSI Research believes that the State Bank will continue to operate a flexible monetary policy in the second half of this year, and when conditions are right, it will approve the loosening of the credit ceiling for commercial banks.
According to the analysis team, the meeting to summarize the banking industry in the first 6 months and operations in the last 6 months of the year held by the SBV this weekend is expected to have clearer announcements on credit policy in the near future. next time.
Talking about the time to loosen the credit “room”, SSI Research said that the State Bank will grant additional credit limits at a reasonable time, which is expected to happen at the end of the third quarter of 2022 and the adjustment level will depend on the health of the customers. financial health of each bank.
KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) forecasts that the SBV’s increase in credit “room” will take place in the middle of July. This will help boost lending activities of the whole industry and the outlook for the third quarter of the banking industry. will be better. However, the analysis team does not expect the new “room” to increase too much because the SBV is tightening cash flow to control inflation.
While Yuanta Securities Vietnam believes that the State Bank will increase credit “room” in August instead of July as expected by the market.
As predicted by VCBS, these banks will be granted additional “room” for credit growth in the first period of the third quarter of 2022.
The credit approval criteria of the State Bank of Vietnam can be mentioned such as the abundance of equity (CAR), risk management capacity (shown by compliance with Basel II, Basel III, etc.) IFRS 9,…), the level of support for the State Bank to perform socio-political tasks (exemption and reduction of interest rates and fees, restructuring credit institutions,…).
According to the analysis team, banks with high CAR and good risk management models such as MB, Vietcombank, Techcombank, VPBank, ACB, TPBank, MSB, etc. will be granted a higher-than-average credit limit. industry in the long run.
In addition, in the coming time, banks that receive forced transfer of weak credit institutions (MB and Vietcombank) will have advantages in terms of credit growth compared to other banks.
On the other hand, warning banks with a high proportion of loans to risky areas such as real estate speculation, securities, corporate bonds, etc. may be limited in their “room” for credit growth in a more moderate level to ensure that systemic risk is limited.
Source: CafeF
