Although after two surveys, the Vietnam Pepper Association forecasts that pepper production in 2021 may decrease by 25-30%, but this number is still controversial between the parties.
Farmers are drying new crops.
The heated controversy forced the VPA to survey production twice
By the end of 2020, after a survey of pepper growing areas, the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) stated that pepper production in 2021 could decrease by 25-30% compared to 2020 to around 168-180 thousand tons.
VPA said that in Bu Dop district, Binh Phuoc province, there was a sharp decline as the number of old pepper orchards made up the majority of the area. In Dak Nong, which is considered to be the region with the largest pepper acreage in the country, the yield decreased by 15-20%.
Especially in Buon Ho town (Dak Lak), the death rate is not less than 50%. Area of dead pepper has been gradually being replaced by coffee and some other crops.
This is the second survey after the controversial results of the first survey. Previously, in the first survey taking place in June 2020, VPA predicted that pepper production in 2021 would continue to decline sharply by 20,000 tons, equivalent to 8.3% compared to 2019, to 220,000 tons.
However, this number faced many objections, leading to the VPA had to be re-surveyed for the second time.
The VPA representative said that the survey team actually only went to some areas of the road survey. How the pepper kills die or how people change to other crops in the rest areas, the VPA has not yet fully grasped.
The controversy has not come to an end
It seemed that the controversy ended here, but the leaders of the VPA themselves opposed this outcome.
At the VPA Executive Board meeting held in the first quarter of 2021, Mr. Nguyen Tan Hien, Deputy General Director of Tran Chau Import Export Trading Service Joint Stock Company, and Vice Chairman of VPA said that the output in 2021 decreased but not to 30. % as other forecasts.
According to calculations, the number of pepper in 2020 has been used up and currently only inventory remains in 2019.
According to other sources, the current inventory in 2019 is still quite large, in addition, problems with high freight rates, delay of delivery and receipt of goods, so the price reduction in the short term is entirely possible. .
Mr. Hien predicts that pepper prices may change in April.
“The recent VPA pepper survey focused too much on dead pepper areas, even dead gardens many years ago.
Therefore, the Association needs to plan its own survey, it should not be too dependent on local people to make the results more objective ”, Mr. Hien said.
Talking to the writer, Mr. Hien shared: “There are many rumors that this year there will be a shortage compared to the demand due to reduced output.
However, overall supply is still higher than demand. The world’s current demand for pepper is about 500,000 tons, while the supply in 2021 plus inventories of the previous years is about 600,000 tons ”.
Mr. Hien said that the orders are like every year, sometimes even less than last year because some customers still have inventory.
On the other side, it is still argued that the output could be reduced even more than the figure that the VPA stated in the second survey report.
Sharing with the writer, Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Permanent Vice Chairman of the Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai province) said that by 2021, the output will decrease by 30-40% to 150,000 tons due to the neglect of the pepper garden.
In addition, the hot and dry weather of the April 2 of last lunar year resulted in no fruit trees, leading to a sharp decline in output this year.
“In recent years, people planted pepper due to excessive losses and bank debt”, said Mr. Binh.
Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, VPA Chairman said that the association asked DARDs in some provinces to determine the area of dead pepper in the locality, but these agencies have yet to announce.
“The forecasting must be based on area-based data from DARDs to be accurate. If based on the survey it is not standard. If hiring an independent surveying unit, the cost is high, the Association cannot meet it, ”said Mr. Hai.
Responding to comments that the survey is led, Le Viet Anh, VPA’s Chief of the Office affirmed that the Association has planned and planned in advance, completely independent and thanks to businesses. local VPA member or cooperative lead the delegation.
Proposals for in-depth investigation of each locality are difficult to implement if riding a large vehicle while the traffic system in remote areas is small and unsecured.
At the same time, if going for a long time, it is difficult for enterprises to arrange personnel to participate. Hiring collaborators to conduct the survey according to the proposal of a number of members requires additional funding.
According to the H. America (Vietnambiz)
