The coffee market last week had a high session, closing at the end of the week, the price of Arabica coffee was located at 319.50 cents compared to the previous week of 330.25 cents/pound, although decreased compared to the week Before, but a week with a high price reached 348.35 cents. Meanwhile, the price of Robusta coffee has a weekly closing of $ 5184/ton than the closing of last week is $ 5116/ton.
Both markets have spent a volatile week in the broad trading bracket and have one thing in common is the lowest level this week is still higher than the lowest level of last week, which proves the withdrawal of the withdrawal of The market goes down with low levels is not easy.
Information about a smaller coffee season in Brazil pushed the price soared after the Volcafe cut estimated the output of Arabica Brazilian coffee 2025/26 to 34.4 million bags on Tuesday, down to 11 million bags. Compared to the estimated September after the season’s visit shows the seriousness of a long drought in Brazil. Volcafe also forecasts that global Arabica coffee deficit 2025/26 is 8.5 million bags, larger than a deficit of 5.5 million bags for the 2024/25 crop and is the fifth consecutive deficit. Although Brazil’s coffee trees are only in the end of the flowering cycle, it is too early to talk about production, but the forecasts related to production at this time have proved very sensitive. During the stressful market
However, the price increase last week also had a repelled batch, in the third and fourth sessions because people were actually not sure about the damage of Brazilian coffee production 25/26 when the house Neuman Gruppe GmbH coffee trading said that Arabica was likely to reach 40 million bags, much higher than Volcafe’s forecast on Tuesday of 34.4 million bags and they added that it was still “too early ”To accurately assess the Brazilian coffee case in 2025/26.
Another independent research company has issued a report on the total crop production of 25/26 of Brazil that is likely to reach about 68 million to 70 million bags.
The report is expected to have 43 million bags of Arabica coffee, and about 26 million Robusta Conilon bags. The prediction said that Brazil had a more favorable weather since October. One can see that this latest prediction is somewhat more optimistic than other forecasting fish.
It should also be recalled that last week there was a report from the Vietnam General Department of Customs that Vietnam’s coffee exports in November decreased -47% over the same period last year to 63,019 tons and exports. Coffee in January 1 in November decreased -14% compared to the same period last year to 1.22 million tons.
Information from the website of trading and technical analysis with a large number of people participating in Trading View on Thursday also reported that the tariffs of the newly elected US President will take effect after January/ 2025 will have a great impact on the 2025 commodity contract.
For cereals, it is expected to be under more pressure than other types, according to Ing Group, a corporation specializing in banking, insurance and asset management services worldwide of the Netherlands said in the Netherlands. One note. “The cereal market is likely to be easily caught up in trade conflicts, especially if we see the type of retaliatory tariffs tariffs on US agricultural exports as seen in 2018.” , the company said. In addition, the weather is another factor that is thought to be a big problem for 2025 according to ingredients of ing, the price of unprocessed goods will be pushed to a higher level – as for planting areas. Items such as coffee and cocoa are expected to be affected by weather problems such as drought.
The price difference between January 2025 contract of London market compared to March of New York has relaxed more than before, currently in the range of 83-85.65 cents/pound. This means that Arabica’s value is increasing compared to Robusta, in contrast to the correlation between the two types of coffee last year.
The monthly survey of Safras & Mercado showed that, as of December 11, Brazilian producers have sold 79% of the 2024/25 crop coffee production, up 9% over the previous month.
According to Safras consultant, Gil Barabach, recent price increase and continuous rumors about the ability to lose in the next harvest will affect the seller. “The growing pessimism in the scale of Brazil’s next harvest is the main reason for producers to continue cautious.
In July, Italy’s Lavazza Coffee Company warned that the price of coffee would continue to increase until the middle of the following year because the industry continued to face “very difficult reverse winds”.
The increase in price has helped to grow income for farmers but are posing challenges for traders, they are facing the increasing cost used for risk prevention for too large contracts sold. On the exchanges and the competition on the market to get the number of coffee debt under the contract.
The US Department of Agriculture is expected to harvest the Robusta of Vietnam will reach 29 million bags, while Volcafe is expected to be only about 24.5 million bags.
The merchants said the Volcafe report was made at the time the market was very worried about the supply, the report had a great impact.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
