Arabica and Coffee Robusta Coffee in May both closed the session of the week at the end of the week, but if counted on weeks, it still increased when Arabica coffee closed at 407.40 cents above the closing level last week was 396.70 cents/pound. Particularly, Robusta coffee is closed at 5726 $/ton increasing compared to the previous week of $ 5564/ton.
Arabica coffee has been reduced due to liquidation of the position to buy after a monthly increase. However, the current coffee price is still supported by the anxiety of the supply that has not been compensated immediately. On Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s January coffee exports fell 1.6% compared to the same period last year to 3.98 million bags in the context of Brazil’s 2025/26 crop The newspaper will decrease by 4.4% over the same period last year.
After a short time the ICE inventory increased, but later due to the decrease in supply, the amount of Robusta coffee inventory was reduced to the lowest level in 6 weeks of 4,332 lots. The amount of Arabica coffee has also dropped again with the lowest level in 3 and a half months of 849,935 bags last Thursday.
It is now a dry season in Vietnam, the fifth month of the 2025/2026 coffee crop, with the main coffee districts in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, which is going through drying weather, but weeks Through the Central Highlands area, there was an unexpected season of rain, but according to many experienced farmers, it could damage the first flower output for this area.
A Reuters polled poll with twelve leading commercial and market analysts has made a comment on the global coffee supply factor, Brazil’s 2024/2025 season reached about 66. , 40 million bags. The poll showed that Brazil’s next crop coffee 2025/2026, belonging to the next year in the two -year cycle lost so the production will decrease by about 2.70% to a total of 64.60 million bags.
The poll also said that the output from the 2025/2026 crop of Vietnam will reach about 29 million bags, which is an increase of 3.57% compared to the current 2024/2025 crop, with an estimated output of 28 million. bag.
The poll concluded that the coffee market will calm down at the end of the year and it is likely that the New York market will gradually decrease at about 295 cents/pound or down 32.50% compared to the closing rate last week. . For the London market, Robusta is also forecasted to be traded at about $ 4,200 or in other words, it is about 27.55% by the end of this year.
The forecasts are often not sure, but the market is now spreading that the price of Arabica coffee is expected to decrease by about 30% by the end of 2025. Brazil’s 26 is expected to be smaller than the previous crop.
For Robusta price, it is also expected to decrease and the forecast of Robusta production of Brazil will increase.
This decline is due to different forecasts and expectations of Brazil’s crop next year as well as because the price has increased recently, expected to reduce demand.
An participant in the poll of the 12 traders and analysts emphasized:
The price is too high will make the need for stagnation.
Let’s note that. There is a conflict between the price forecast and the collection of Brazil, when the forecast of the Arabica Coffee season of Brazil’s Arabica 2025-26 season, it decreased by 40.55 million bags compared to 43.4 million bags of the previous season, But the price is not forecasted to increase.
Technically for the next week, we are quite pessimistic at the price of Arabica when it did not overcome the 430 cent milestone, there was a liquidation of profit and profit, closing the position to buy at this level, causing the price to turn the head. , this will probably be the highest mark in all time of Arabica. From a technical and safe perspective, Arabica should not expect at a higher price than 426 cents, at least for next week.
For Robusta after failing with the peak of $ 5843/ton, it seems that the London market will also break up with this peak from here, we have quite pessimistic views for the price of two markets next week.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
