Before going to today’s newsletter, we would like to notify, from today the newsletter will mention the price of May 2025 because the current price in March has run out of reference value.
By the end of week 6, the price of Arabica coffee has soared compared to the previous week, reaching 396.70 cents/pound compared to the closing of the last week of 371.35 cents, especially the trading volume in the week also increased. Very strong, reaching 22,149 lots compared to the previous week of only 15,980 lots, high trading volume in the context of this increase in price promises Arabica coffee prices may still have a rising sugar, although the current price of coffee This critic has increased the fifth week in a row.
Talking about the price of Robusta coffee, there was a pause in the fourth week after 3 weeks of continuous increase was significantly very significant before, closed weekly, the price of Robusta in May lies at 5564 $/ton compared to Last week was $ 5694, although the price was discounted up to $ 130/ton, Vietnam’s domestic prices still kept a higher purchase than last week, currently still in 129.5-130k/kg after people holidays Nguyen Dan has returned to the market now.
The concern of global coffee supply is still continuing to support prices. Last Tuesday, Conab, the forecast agency of the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee season will decrease by 4.4% over the same period last year to the lowest level in the lowest level. 3 years is 51.81 million bags.
Global coffee exports are also thought to be reduced after the World Coffee Organization – ICO reported on Thursday that global coffee exports in December 2024 decreased by 12.4% over the same period last year to down to the down. 10.73 million bags and global coffee exports in October 3 to 12 decreased by 0.8% compared to the same period last year to 32.25 million bags.
However, information from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam published on Thursday on Robusta export of Vietnam in January 2025 increased by 6.3% compared to the previous month to 134,000 tons, which has partly cooled the price of coffee. This.
In addition, the report has an increase in the amount of Robusta coffee inventory, which is supervised by ICE, increasing to the highest level in the last 4 months last Friday, at 4,603 lots. The amount of Arabica coffee inventory has also increased to the highest level in 2 and a half years of 993,562 bags on January 6 but not kept for long, when this amount of residue has been reduced again to the lowest level in 3 months. is 847,805 bags.
Report from ICO confirms the decline in exports from Asia when Vietnam, India and Indonesia combined records a reduction of about 31.20% in export, when compared to the same period last year, mainly due to Exports decreased by 39.50% from Vietnam in December. In the report of the ICO also said that exports from Africa increased by 8.00% over the same period last year, the main contribution to the increase in December is Ethiopia with exports increased by 28% over the same period last year.
ICO reports are also included in the total global export, export data from Mexico and the traditional wet processing of Central American; Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador, reported in December that exports were 0.90% higher than the same period last year.
According to news from Brazil – two issues, the climate and consumption increase will increase the price of coffee – the information is beaten from Su Paulo
The Brazilian coffee industry reports that coffee prices will continue to increase in the coming weeks, at least until this year’s harvest, starting around April or May. are climatic events, affecting the harvest. Higher consumption worldwide and the appearance of a new consumer market, China will play a significant role.
This impact on the price is expected to continue in two or three months. After that, the price may slow down for a while, with a certain stability. However, the association estimates that the price will only decrease in the harvest next year.
Increased coffee prices have been observed since November last year. This is not only a visible phenomenon in Brazil – the world’s leading coffee exporting country, accounting for nearly 40%, followed by Vietnam about 17% and followed by Colombia.
Brazil’s harvest season broke the record by 2020, but in the following years was not favorable and became lost due to the influence of the weather. In 2021, a frost wiped nearly a quarter of the Arabica season. In 2022, there was no recovery. The association argues that it usually takes two years for plants to recover after a frost event.
Through 2023, the plants were influenced by El Niño, with a long -term period of drought and high temperatures. Finally, last year was attacked by La Niña, with prolonged rainfall.
“This is really bad for crops,” said ABIC Pavel Cardoso, and added that this year’s harvest will be a bit smaller than last year.
“The accumulation of four years with climate problems and global demand increases explain this suddenly increase of coffee prices,” he commented.
With all of these issues, manufacturers are forced to increase production costs. As a result, the cost of input materials increased. The Association said the coffee industry has endured the cost increase of more than 200% and they have to transfer part of them – estimated only about 38% – to consumers.
Over the past four years, the price of raw materials has increased by 224% and retail coffee prices have increased by 110%. Last year, consumer price fluctuations for roasted and ground coffee were 37.4%.
In India – when the coffee market continues to skyrocket to a new record high in New York and London, the price on the farm in India, also reflects the global trend, has increased to a new high level. Last week, the price at the farm, for high -class Arabica grain coffee surpassed 25,000 rupees, for a 50 kg bag (ie about 144,000 VND/kg of Arabica Coffee) and Robusta Coffee price exceeded the threshold of 22,000 rupees (about 126,850 VND/kg of Ro cafe).
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
