The first half of the fifth week of coffee prices on both markets marked a sharp increase when Arabica last week closed at 347.55 cents, that is, up to 19.20 cents compared to the previous week. In particular, the price of Robusta that Vietnamese farmers are interested in increasing last week (4th week) closed at $ 5544/ton to $ 538/ton, that is not counting the new week at the beginning of the year The lunar calendar when this news was released, only in the three sessions of the new week (5th week) Robusta price increased by $ 16/ton, touching $ 5560 when closed on the third session on January 28.
The reason is thought to be because farmers in the leading production country of Brazil still do not want to sell due to the instability of the upcoming crop and they hope the price will be even higher, in addition to the Vietnamese market also holidays. Nguyen Dan made the market lack of sellers.
Brazil produced nearly half of Arabica coffee beans in the world. The country has experienced one of the worst droughts in history last year.
The market has received support from the expectation that serious drought last year made coffee trees lack vitality to create a bumper crop, ”according to Admisi, the brokerage of the agricultural trading company. Giant Archer Daniels Midland.
However, some traders said recent tours to coffee growing areas in Brazil showed that the crop seems to be better than the previous expected thanks to the rains in the past few months.
Concerns about the global coffee supply now are increasingly pushed by the purchase from funds in the context of stressful coffee prices. It should also be reiterated that the forecast after the survey of Volcafe last December to global Arabica coffee in 2025/26 was a decline of 8.5 million bags, larger than the deficit of 5.5 million bags in the year. 2024/25 and is the fifth consecutive deficit.
A factor that helps the price for coffee is that after the Conab’s forecast last Tuesday, the estimated reduction of the Brazilian coffee season in 2024 to 1.1% to 54.2 million bags compared to estimates in the month. 9/2024 is 54.8 million bags.
Arabica coffee also received support from rainfall below Brazil after Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday that Brazil’s largest Arabica coffee growing area, Minas Gerais, received 26.5 mm rain last week last week. , or only 53% compared to historical average.
Robusta coffee prices are supported by decreased output. Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop has decreased by 20% to 1,472 mmt, the lowest level in four years. In addition, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported on January 10 that Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2024 decreased by 17.1% over the same period last year to 1.35 million tons.
The amount of Robusta coffee inventory increased by ICE to the highest level in nearly 4 months last Friday was 4,603 lots. Meanwhile, the amount of Arabica coffee has dropped to the lowest level in 6 weeks of 928,935 bags on Friday.
The latest report on the position of buying/selling of traders from the Arabica New York market net buying increased by 4.62% as of Tuesday, January 21, 2025 to register the new buying position is 51.054 lot.
The latest report on the position of buying/selling from the Robusta London market said the funds management companies have also increased their net buying position to 5.68% up to the same time, the amount of net buying position. The new is 19.106 lots, equivalent to 3,184,333 bags.
Safras & Mercado analysts reported that Brazilian coffee growers sold about 85% of the estimated total output of 66.04 million bags from the current Brazilian coffee crop. Sales speed beyond the same period last year, when this figure was recorded 74%. There is an increase in the export of Robusta this year of Brazil at a record price that attracts early sales from the beginning, which is likely to contribute to the higher the rate of coffee this year. The Brazilian Coffee Export Association, Cecafé, reported the total export of Robusta Conilon coffee in the first six months of the current year of the current crop of 5.08 million bags, an increase of 27.81% over the same period last year. Most of this sales activity was carried out before and in mid -2024.
Analysts Safras & Mercado reported that they predict the Brazilian coffee crop from July 2025 to June 2026 will reach 62.45 million bags. This figure is about 5% lower than their estimates for the current coffee crop. The report forecasts that Arabica coffee production will be estimated at 15% to 38.35 million bags when compared to the current crop and the production of Conilon Robusta coffee will increase slightly, reaching 24.10 million bags.
Overview of the market situation is a speculative psychology about the new crop in Brazil, currently, it has been widely accepted that the crop here will be smaller than the original expected. The highest prediction of independent forecasters is 65.60 million bags and the lowest is 58.40 million bags, with the average on the revised data published so far is 62.80 million bags. .
Farmers and coffee exporters of Vietnam will not participate in buying/selling this week, because the Lunar New Year will start on January 29, 2025 until this weekend.
Latest news from politics, a report that the United States threatened to apply 25% tax to all Colombian imports after the Colombian government information banned two US military aircraft. landing in this country. Trade agreements and tariff changes can cause significant consequences for Colombia’s exports to the United States. Colombia is the exporter of coffee, flowers and crude oil to the United States, any continuous escalation of tariffs can increase prices for US consumers. The main coffee export market of Colombia is the United States, with more than 38% or 4.15 million bags of exported coffee to this market. This may have some impacts on US consumers, as the annual import amount from Colombia accounts for about 18% of the total amount of coffee imported into the United States. The news said, the Colombian government agreed to accept flights.
In another news: A study confirmed that iron rust fungicide is toxic to farmers
According to the Daily Coffee News – January 27, 2025
A new study has revealed that significant health risks for coffee farmers in the South of Minas Gerais, Brazil, originated from exposure to Triazole fungicides. These chemicals are used in most global coffee industry to fight iron rust on coffee leaves and some other plant diseases.
The team has verified a toxic component that is likely to cause a level of toxin exposure between the object and the laboratory models.
“We have used laboratory tests (in test tubes), compare them with data obtained from real people (in the living body) and find clear correlation,” Nicole Kleinstruer , director of the poisoning department of the National Institute of Environmental Health Science, said in the announcement of the findings. “For the first time, we pointed out that data from human cell -based tests is highly predictable to impact, the degree of exposure and human concentration – a real comparison between People with people, between apples and apples ”.
Initial research focused on 140 farm workers and their spouses from rural coffee growing areas in Minas Gerais and compares them with 50 urban residents without contact.
Field research by Luiz Paulo de Aguiar Marciano of Brazil’s Federal University Alfenas has discovered that men who work on farms with testosterone and Androstenedione are significantly reduced – these are the main hormones for Many different biological functions.
According to research authors, this hormonal imbalance is associated with broader metabolic disorders, including higher levels of cholesterol, LDL and glucose.
The biological signs of fungicide toxicity are also found in the spouse of rural farm workers, but not in any of the 50 urban subjects.
Published in the comprehensive environmental science magazine of Elsevier, this new research offer new evidence, through both human testing and calculation model, about the negative effects of Triazole in coffee in coffee. .
Research provides evidence that people are at higher risk of poisoning and need to develop better exposure risk management measures, “Kleinstruuer said,” such as setting up many digging programs. Create more to help them understand the importance of the use of personal protection equipment and comply with the instructions for the use of fungicides. ”
Kinh Vu (giacaphe.com)
