The outbreak of the new strain of covid-19 has led to concerns that global coffee consumption will slow down, while the weather news in the second half of August is still the focus of the market’s attention today…
Robusta London chart September 2021 week 32 (from August 9, 2021 to August 14, 2021)
For the whole week of 32, the London market had 3 increasing sessions at the beginning of the week and 2 decreasing sessions at the end of the week. The price of Robusta coffee for September delivery increased by all 85 USD, or 4.88%, to 1,728 USD/ton and for November delivery, increased by all 82 USD, or 4.68%, to 1,736 USD. /ton, strong increases. Trading volume above average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 4 gaining sessions and 1 decreasing session at the end of the week. The price of Arabica coffee for September delivery increased by all 6.75 cents, or 3.84%, to 182.75 cents/lb, and for December delivery increased by all 6.70 cents, or 3.0%. 74%, to 185.75 cents/lb, strong gains. Trading volume maintained very above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 1,100 – 1,200 VND, to fluctuate in the range of 36,800 – 37,600 VND/kg.
Coffee prices suddenly spiked at the beginning of the week when it was confirmed that damaging frosts on the coffee belt in southern Brazil could reach more than 10% of the area. However, coffee prices weakened again at the end of the week as the market considered the potential loss of the 2022 crop to be significant. Combined with monthly supply and demand reports, speculators balance and adjust positions when the September options contract also expires, with New York this weekend and London mid-next week.
According to the weekly report of the consultant – analyst Safras & Mercado, it is estimated that Brazil has harvested more than 89% of the new coffee crop so far, with about 50.45 million bags, including 21.20 million bags of coffee. Conilon Robusta and 29.22 million bags of Arabica coffee, slightly behind the five-year average. The Conilon Robusta coffee harvest is almost completed, while the Arabica coffee crop is estimated to have about 5.98 million bags still being harvested.
The current weather report in Brazil is still dry and there is no risk of frost in the second half of August. However, there is still a concern that the outbreak of a new strain of covid-19 will cause many countries to re-establish social distancing measures and as a result, global coffee consumption will slow down.
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) July market report has revised down its estimate of a global coffee surplus for the current crop year 2020/2021 to 2.02 million bags, instead of a surplus of 2.26 million bags according to previous estimates.
As of Monday, August 9, inventories of Robusta coffee certified by the London floor have decreased by 1,560 tons, or 1.08% from a week earlier, to registered at 142,420 tons (equivalent to 2,373. 667 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
