Monetary pressure and concerns about declining consumption in the context of the world economic recession have made coffee futures prices somewhat weaker again…
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Robusta London chart September 2022, week 29 (from July 18, 2022 to July 23, 2022)
For the whole week of 29, the London market had 4 gaining sessions, 2 decreasing sessions and 1 unchanged session in the middle of the week. The price of Robusta coffee for September delivery increased by all of 39 USD, or 2.03%, to 1,962 USD/ton and for November delivery increased by all 36 USD, or 1.87%, to 1,960 USD. /ton, the increase is quite strong. Trading volume below average.
Similarly, the New York market had 3 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for September delivery increased all of 6.90 cents, or 3.45%, to 206.70 cents/lb and December delivery rose all of 6.05 cents, or 3.0%. 08%, to 202.65 cents/lb, strong gains in Trading Volume above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 700-800 VND, up to range from 39,100 to 39,700 VND/kg.
The highlight of the week was the somewhat upbeat US economic index reports that made the market speculate that the Fed would be more aggressive in operating the basic monetary interest rate in the coming time. Major central banks in the world simultaneously adjusted monetary interest rates to show their active contribution in balancing the world money market.
The European Central Bank (ECB) for the first time in 11 years has adjusted the euro interest rate by 0.5% to 0.5 – 0.75%/year in the context of the energy crisis and high inflation. for the first time the euro parity with green silver coinwhile the war in Eastern Europe is still fierce, causing unrest within the European Union to persist.
The heightened risk aversion prompted investors to shift capital flows to safe-havens and as a result, long-term US Treasury yields rose to more than 3% over the past several days sending USDX up as much as 1. .79% in the past week has weakened commodity prices in general.
Coffee prices seem to want to set a new ground not only with the pressure of the currency but also because Brazil is harvesting a new crop periodically. “two years one” pushed them to sell strongly when the reais rate was falling to a nearly 6-month low, helping them to increase profits.
In addition, the report that ICE inventories fell to a 23-year low also contributed to supporting coffee prices in the medium term.
Vietnam Customs reported preliminary data that coffee exports in the first 15 days of July reached 58,365 tons (equivalent to 972,570 bags), down 2.46% year-on-year, bringing exports 6.5 months the beginning of 2022 to a total of 1,077,103 tons (about 17.95 million bags), an increase of 19.29% year-on-year, also putting pressure on London Robusta coffee prices in the short and medium term.
As of Monday, July 18, the inventory of Robusta coffee certified and tracked by the London floor increased by 720 tons, or 0.67 compared to a week earlier, to record inventories at 107,620 tons. (equivalent to 1,793,667 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)