Commodity funds have stepped up buying due to concerns that a strong reais exchange rate will cause Brazilians to reduce selling…
Robusta London chart July 2022 week 21 (from May 23, 2022 to May 28, 2022)
For the whole week of 21, the London market had 2 decreasing sessions and 3 increasing sessions in the middle of the week. The price of Robusta coffee for spot delivery in July increased by all 41 USD, or 1.99%, to 2,097 USD/ton and for September delivery increased by all 37 USD, or 1.81 %, to 2,096 USD. /ton, the increases are very significant. Trading volume below average.
Similarly, the New York market had 2 decreasing sessions at the beginning of the week and 3 consecutive increasing sessions at the end of the week. The price of Arabica coffee for July delivery increased by all 13.60 cents, or 6.30 percent, to 229.45 cents/lb, and for September delivery, it increased by all 13.70 cents, or 6.30 percent. 34%, to 229.70 cents/lb, very strong gains. Trading volume quite above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 900 – 1,000 VND, up to range in the range of 40,800 – 41,400 VND/kg.
The rate of the reais increased strongly again, which supported the price of coffee futures on the New York floor to have a strong week, rarely seen.
Highlights of the week were the reports of excess inflation that had covered all continents that were higher than many speculated and the increasingly fierce war of Russian aggression in Eastern Europe that caused an energy and food crisis in the world. The whole world has raised risk aversion, capital flows have not stopped flowing between markets, while China has blocked Shanghai, the world’s largest seaport for goods, because of the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic. congested the global supply chain, contributing to the crisis…
According to Conab, this year’s crop of Brazilian coffee is only 53.4 million bags of coffee of all kinds, down 15.3% compared to 2000, which is the most recent year for Arabica coffee trees with the highest output. Traditionally, Conab’s numbers are often assessed by the market as 5-8% lower than the average of many other independent surveys.
The National Coffee Federation (FNC) has reported Arabica production in the current crop year 2021/2022 is likely to decline by 13.80% to between 12 and 12.50 million bags, about 10.07 lower. % compared to the coffee production of the previous crop year. FNC initially forecast overall production this year to be in the range of 14 million bags and the drop was attributed to adverse weather during the fruit development period and the early harvest of this year’s Mitcaca crop.
According to market sources, the production of high-quality wet-processed Arabica coffee in Mexico – Central America is said to have run out of stock in the domestic market, leaving the bloc’s exporters without goods to deliver to other countries. port. It is known that wet-processed Arabica coffee from this source usually accounts for more than 80% of Arabica coffee sold at auction on the New York Stock Exchange, only when the supply is in serious shortage in the last few years does the floor accept for sale. Brazilian semi-wash Arabica coffee entered the auction with a fixed discount of 10cents/lb.
Honduras, the bloc’s main wet-processed Arabica producer, is expected to export only about 5 million bags this year, down 1 million bags from a forecast earlier this year. Honduras used to set a goal of striving for an output of 10 million bags per year, but due to adverse weather, consecutive crop failures due to floods, storms, and floods, production did not increase but decreased.
Note, In the latest coffee market report, Rabobank Global supply is forecast to shift to a surplus of 1.7 million bags in MY 2022/2023, from a shortfall of 5.1 million bags in MY21/2022.
English (giacaphe.com)
