The risk aversion is still high, so speculators continue to liquidate their net positions in both futures markets as the first delivery date (FND) of the May futures is also near…
Robusta London chart May 2022, week 15 (from April 11, 2022 to April 16, 2022)
For the whole week 15, London market had 1 gaining session at the beginning of the week and 3 consecutive decreasing sessions. The price of Robusta coffee for May delivery fell all 4 USD, or 0.19%, to 2,087 USD/ton, while the price for July delivery increased all 3 USD, or 0.14%, to USD 2,099/ton and for September delivery increased all 8 USD, or 0.38%, to 2,102 USD/ton, slight increases/decreases. Trading volume on average.
Similarly, the New York market also had 1 gaining session at the beginning of the week and 3 consecutive decreasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for May delivery fell all of 8.05 cents, or 3.48%, to 223.60 cents/lb and for July delivery fell all of 7.80 cents, or 3.0%. 37 %, to 223.75 cents/lb, very strong declines. Trading volume very high above normal.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased from 0 to 100 dong, to range from 40,000 to 40,600 dong/kg.
The price of coffee futures dropped continuously due to speculation on liquidation of positions, moving forward months before the expiration of the May futures contract on the markets. In addition, the fear of excessive inflation and heightened risks when the war in Eastern Europe can drag back the world economic growth due to Western embargo policies, while the covid-19 epidemic is still in the early stages of the world economy, is still a concern. spread and major central banks are considering to tighten economic stimulus measures and raise the monetary base interest rate at upcoming policy meetings.
Coffee selling pressure for coffee year 2021/2022 from producing countries remains intact, while some major producing countries such as Brazil and Indonesia have entered the harvest of this year’s new crop with initial forecasts showing Being very optimistic also caused the speculative trend in the markets to slow down. This combined with the possibility of an upcoming basic interest rate hike has made investors continue to be cautious in balancing and liquidating their net positions in the futures markets in general.
The Brazilian Association of Coffee Roasters (ABIC) estimates that coffee consumption in the Brazilian domestic market has increased by 1.70% to 21.50 million bags in the 2020/2021 crop year, slightly lower compared to many trade forecasts. However, because Brazil has to meet the export demand to traditional consumer markets that account for 35 million bags of coffee per year. Therefore, Brazil needs a minimum stable coffee output of about 56.50 million bags per year to meet both domestic consumption and export demand.
Indonesian government trade data shows that Robusta coffee exports in March reached 126,740 bags, down 119,991 bags, or 48.63% lower than the same period last year. However, at the end of the traditional coffee crop year (April 2021 to March 2022), Indonesia exported a total of 4,568,248 bags, an increase of 1,327,903 bags, or an increase of 40.98% compared to the previous year. with the previous coffee year 2020/2021.
English (giacaphe.com)
