The price of coffee last week jubilantly went through every level of the association. At the beginning of the week, on Monday, the price of Robusta coffee with 3 consecutive sessions reached the highest level at $ 5735 and it only took 2 consecutive sessions after that, the market almost returned to the old landmark where it started to close weekly at $ 5353/ton, an incorrect increase compared to the previous week was $ 5330/ton.
However, the price of Arabica coffee has more prosperous, when trading in the week, it reached a high 418.55 cent/pound with the highest level in all time and ending the week at 384.4, which increased compared to the closing of the last week of 373.05 cents/pound.
The weekend session has extended the sharp decline of the previous day due to the forecast of rain in Brazil. The Somar Meteorologia Meteorological Agency said that on Thursday, the Brazilian weather during the weekend had showers until next week, soothing the drought for a long time.
Robusta coffee is also under pressure after the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported on Thursday that Vietnam’s coffee exports in February increased by 6.6% over the same period last year to 169,000 tons. In addition, the rains in Vietnam also put pressure on the price of Robusta coffee, with forecasts that the possibility of rain every day next week in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, the largest coffee growing area in the country.
The recovery of the amount of coffee inventory of Robusta coffee increased to the highest level in 1 month in Friday, reaching 4,356 lots is also a negative factor for this type of coffee price. The amount of Arabica coffee has been certified to be held on the New York exchange has recorded a decline in the past few weeks, although there has been improvement, an increase of 11,949 bags, but still in a low frame of 794,681 bags on Thursday.
The anxiety about supply is still a factor that continues to support coffee prices. Cecafe should be reported on February 12 that Brazil’s coffee export in January 2025 decreased by 1.6% over the same period last year to 3.98 million bags. In addition, on January 28, Conab, the Brazilian government’s seasonal forecasting agency, said that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee season will drop 4.4% over the same period last year to the lowest level in 3 years of 51.81 million bags. This shows that the supply from Brazil has never shown signs of improvement. Although coffee prices will have markets, as well as updated news about the weather, the core issue is the supply.
The impact of El Nino dry weather last year could lead to long -term damage to the coffee season in South and Central America. Colombia, the world’s second largest Arabica coffee producer, is gradually recovering after the drought caused by El Nino last year.
The Colombian National Coffee Federation reported that the country’s coffee production, in February, recorded 41.62% higher than the same period last year. The Federation also reported that the national output of the first five months of the current coffee crop was also 36.49% higher than the same period of the previous coffee year, reaching 7,615,000 bags.
It is forecasted that the total crop production of Colombia in the 24/25 coffee crop is likely to reach about 13 million bags or 3.95% higher than the previous coffee crop. It is estimated that the country can export about 11.20 million bags in the current coffee crop.
Weather conditions in Brazil are being closely monitored because the harvest in Brazil’s Robusta Cailon coffee areas will start next month, while the Arabica coffee harvest is expected to start around the middle of the year. There is a forecast of scattered rainfall next week, this is a praiseworthy sign after February drying than usual.
The external influence and macroeconomic development around the US dollar compared to other main currencies have made the Brazilian Real’s Real Estate increased by 2.60% compared to the US dollar in the first week of March, Brazil’s Carnival festival season took place since the end of February, which will end on March 5, which can lead to an increase in operation in the largest production country and export of coffee markets.
In another news from sources like Reuter said
Global coffee transactions and roasters have cut the purchase amount to a minimum, when the industry is wobbling because of the sharp increase in prices that suppliers have not convinced retail stores to accept price raising.
At the annual conference of the US National Coffee Association in Houston last week, attendees said they were shocked when the future Arabica coffee price on the ICE trading floor, up 70% since November 2024.
Renan Chueiri, General Director of Elcafe Ca at Ecuador, said this year was the first year this instant coffee producer did not sell all the expected annual output in March.
“We have often sold out at this time, but so far we have only sold less than 30% of production,” he said. “This large price increase exhausted customers’ cash flow, they did not have enough money to buy what they need.”
He said that many recent transactions in Brazil have been done in a very classic way.
“You close a transaction, then you have seven days to the farm or warehouse and get coffee. You check the quality, and if okay, pay on the spot and take the coffee away ”.
A recent Reuters polled predicted that Arabica coffee prices may fall by 30% by the end of this year, because high prices limit demand and initial signs showing a good crop of Brazil next year.
An executive director of a large roasting company in the United States – said some of his customers were not sure they could continue their business.
Coffee warehouses near the ports in the United States, which receives coffee beans from Central and South America, is currently only half the normal volume, one executive director of one of the largest companies in the field of storage said.
“Some storage companies are returning the tanks to the owner, canceling the rental contract early,” he said.
Technically, it can be said that the price of Robusta coffee is currently in the trading bracket with the purchase support of $ 5270 and the selling reaction of about $ 5600/ton, any shift beyond this frame can be considered a new volatile.
Kinh Vu (Giacaphe.com)
