The sharp increase in long-term US Treasury bond yields attracted speculative capital inflows and pushed the value of the US dollar up so that emerging currencies were at a disadvantage, while the market was even more disappointed by the financial package. The new aid has not yet been approved by the US Congress.
Robusta London chart May / 2021 week 9 (from March 1, 2021 to March 6, 2021)
For the whole week 9, London market had 5 dropping sessions. Robusta coffee futures for immediate delivery in May decreased by all 92 USD, or by 6.25%, down to 1,381 USD / ton and in July delivery by all 90 USD, or by 6.04%, down to 1,400 USD. / ton, very strong reductions. Trading volume quite high above average.
Similarly, New York market had all 5 declining sessions. Arabica coffee futures for immediate delivery in May decreased all 8.65 cents, or 6.29%, down to 128.85 cents / lb and July futures decreased all 8.45 cents, which is down 6, 07%, to 130.85 cents / lb, the reductions are also very strong. Trading volume very high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased by 1,200 – 1,400 VND, down to fluctuate in the range of 31,700 – 32,400 VND / kg.
Coffee futures prices fell continuously as US Treasury bonds raised long-term interest rates to record levels, boosting the “USD buying wave” all over the markets, making emerging countries’ currencies at a disadvantage, speculative capital flows away from derivative markets, causing gold and coffee prices to fall. Contributing to that is also the disappointment of the market in general when the 1.9 trillion USD funding package has not been approved by the US Congress.
Reais copper fell back deeply, helping to support Brazil’s agricultural export sales, as they earned more domestic currency, which pushed coffee markets to decline, regaining all that was done in last week. This is also the contradiction that exists in the general markets today as it has reminded investors to pay attention in the short and medium term.
The National Coffee Federation (FNC) in Colombia reported production in February increased 10.59% year-on-year to reach 1,107,000 bags, contributing to a cumulative production of coffee in the first five months. the current crop year 2020/2021 totals 6,533,000 bags, a decrease of 1.11% compared to the same period of the previous crop year. However, FNC – Colombia also reported exports in February reached 1,275,000 bags, an increase of 18.27% over the same period last year, contributing to the cumulative export of coffee in the first 5 months of crop year 2020/2021. a total of 5,989,000 bags, an increase of 1.47% compared to the same period of the previous crop year.
The General Statistics Office of Vietnam has estimated that coffee exports in February will be about 1,833,333 bags, down more than 41% compared to the same period last year. This will cause Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first two months of this calendar year to total 4,516,667 bags, down 18.50% compared to the first two months of last year. However, the reason for the decline in exports was not only due to the fact that February was a month with few days, but also due to a long Traditional New Year holiday.
The latest Trader Commitment Report (CFTC) from the Arabica coffee market in New York showed that as of Tuesday, February 23, the non-commercial speculation division increased their net buying position by 82, 1%, up registered net buying of 35,426 lots, equivalent to 10,043,114 bags. This net long position is most likely to have surged further after a period of very active trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from Robusta coffee market in London shows that, by the same reporting period, short-term speculation of money management funds has turned net selling position to net buying at 11,664 lots, equivalent to with 1,944,000 bags. This net short position has most likely been strengthened further after a more active overall trading period since then.
Inventory of Robusta coffee certified and tracked by the London floor, as of Monday, March 1, it decreased by 650 tons, or 0.45% from a week earlier, to registration at 144,230 tons ( equivalent to 2,403,833 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
