Freight charges increased, futures prices dropped for a long time, so most traders were not interested in bringing coffee to two floors to register to wait for auction.
Robusta London T11 / 2020 chart week 40 (from September 28, 2020 – October 3, 2020)
For the whole week 40, London market had 2 gaining sessions and 3 decreasing sessions. Robusta coffee futures for immediate delivery in November fell by all 68 USD, or by 0.01%, to 1,290 USD / ton and for delivery in January decreased by 65 USD, or by 4.72%, to 1,311 USD. / ton, very strong reductions. Trading volume is quite high above average.
Meanwhile, New York market had 3 gaining sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. Arabica coffee futures for immediate delivery in December decreased all 4.7 cents, or 4.14%, down to 108.95 cents / lb and futures for delivery in March decreased all 4.25 cents, or 3, 69%, to 110.95 cents / lb, the reductions are also very strong. Trading volume remained very high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased by 900-1,000 VND, down to fluctuating in the frame of 30,900 – 31,400 VND / kg.
Two-floor coffee prices fell sharply after the recovery of the US stock market, making USDX strong again, pushing Reais down deeply, becoming the weakest currency in the world according to the page’s assessment. The Rio Times. This, along with the record harvest, pushed world coffee prices back down, nothing to stop.
Covid-19 outbreaks for the second time, many major economies have to re-establish the gap, causing the demand for coffee to decline significantly, although the demand for instant coffee for home consumption has increased. Robusta coffee subsidies somewhat.
Reported coffee inventories on both exchanges for a prolonged decline, currently standing at a record low, seems inevitable due to limited shipping. Besides, futures prices fell too low, so no one was interested in bringing coffee to the floor to register to wait for auction.
The International Coffee Organization’s (ICO) August market report shows that global coffee exports this month only reached 10.04 million bags, down 4.2% year-on-year. ICO also estimates global production for coffee year 2019/2020 will reach 169.34 million bags, 2.2% lower than in the previous season. But global consumption will drop 0.5% to 167.81 million bags due to the covid-19 pandemic. Therefore, crop year 2019/2020 will end with a surplus of 1.54 million bags, while crop year 2018/2019 has an excess of 4.4 million bags, twice the surplus will make it difficult for coffee prices to recover in Short-term.
The latest Trader Commitment Report (CFTC) from New York’s Arabica coffee market found non-commercial speculators reduced their net buying position by 9.67% during the trade week to Tuesday. September 22, down to register to buy net at 32,094 lots, equivalent to 9,098,507 bags.
The latest CFTC report from Robusta coffee market in London shows that the short-term speculation of Money Management Funds cut their net buying position by 0.97% in the same trading week, to subscribe to net buy at 16,678 lots, or 2,779,667 bags, on the same reporting day.
As of Monday, September 28, inventories of Robusta coffee certified and tracked by London floor have decreased by 220 tons, or 0.16% lower than the previous trading week, to registration at 109,340 tons. (equivalent to 1,822,333 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
