USDX declined, New York coffee prices plunged unprecedented … At this time, the picture of world coffee futures markets did not have anything to call bright …
Robusta London T11 / 2020 chart week 38 (from September 14, 2020 – September 19, 2020)
For the whole week 38, London market had 2 gaining sessions and 3 decreasing sessions. Robusta coffee futures for immediate delivery in November decreased by all 77 USD, or 5.37%, down to 1,356 USD / ton and for January delivery dropped by 73 USD, or by 5.05%, to 1,372 USD. / ton, very strong reductions. Trading volume is at medium level.
Meanwhile, the New York market declined for 5 consecutive sessions. Arabica coffee futures for immediate delivery in December fell all 18.95 cents, or 14.31%, down 113.5 cents / lb and futures for March delivery decreased all 18.1 cents, or 13, 57%, to 115.3 cents / lb, extreme declines. Trading volume remained quite high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased by 1,300 – 1,400 VND, down to fluctuate in the range of 31,800 – 32,300 VND / kg.
Two-floor coffee prices fell sharply after Brazil completed the harvest of the new crop this year with forecast output of more than 68.1 million bags and export reports in the first 8 months of the year totaled 26.4 million bags. coffee of all kinds, a relatively high export performance over the past 5 years.
The market is having a coffee surplus or shortage with mixed information (?). The certified inventory reporting data on the two exchanges is currently very low. New York is only 1.05 million bags, at a 20-year low. London is marginally better with 1.83 million bags, at a near 2-year low. Meanwhile, warehouses of coffee trading companies in Brazil currently have no room to store coffee.
USDX weakened, US technology stocks declined, the conflict between Republicans and Democrats on the eve of the US presidential election pushed Wall Street financial markets into a negative position. Global commodity consumption slows down due to the second covid-19 epidemic. Speculation to move capital to find shelter made gold prices soar. Sino-US trade tensions have not eased, even spread further. The mountains of money are being released by many central banks to save the slumping economy. Unrest on many politics persists. Commodity prices dancing wildly. Has the global economic picture ever had so many problems as today? Coffee prices seem to have lost their way, it is not too surprising.
So far, Brazilian farmers have sold 60% of the new crop this year, according to Safras & Mercado, or about 41 million bags are being delivered to commercial warehouses. Export goods are full of ports because the ship has no space, because the freight increases, because the transport capacity has decreased sharply due to epidemics. New sales contracts are suspended, or temporarily deposited at the seller’s warehouse. The Brazilians still push up sales when possible, because the Reais copper rate is at a favorable level, while they are facing a new, favorable initial crop due to the forecast of rain covering all major growing areas. But all are mostly temporary, short-term.
The latest Trader Commitment Report (CFTC) from the Arabica coffee market in New York shows that as of Tuesday, September 8, the non-commercial speculation division increased its net buying position by 13, 17% registered net buying of 33,092 lots, or 9,381,435 bags and is likely to have dropped sharply again after a period of very negative trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from Robusta coffee market in London shows that, by the same reporting period, short-term speculation of money management funds increased their net buying position by 16.02% to subscribe. net is at 15,240 lots, or 2,540,000 bags and is likely to have fallen back sharply after a period of mainly negative trade since then.
English (giacaphe.com)
