Inventory on both exchanges fell to a “rare” low, aroused concerns about supply, but USDX’s decline and US-China trade tensions seemed to have no stop, making speculators still afraid. , continue to stand outside the markets to hear more …
Robusta London T11 / 2020 chart week 35 (from August 24, 2020 – August 29, 2020)
For the whole week 35, London market had 3 gaining sessions and 2 losing sessions. Robusta coffee futures for immediate delivery in November increased by $ 23, or up 1.64%, to $ 1,429 / ton and futures for January delivery increased by $ 25, or up 1.77%, up. 1,436 USD / ton, very significant increases. Trading volume is above average.
On the contrary, New York market had 4 gaining sessions and only 1 decreasing session. Arabica coffee futures for immediate delivery in December increased all 6.55 cents, or 5.43%, to 126.35 cents / lb and futures for 3/2021 delivery increased all 5.85 cents, ie increased. 4.81%, to 127.35 cents / lb, very strong increases. Trading volume is quite high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 200-300 VND, up fluctuating in the frame of 33,300 – 33,800 VND / kg.
Coffee futures prices continued to rise not only because inventories certified by the two exchanges fell to a record low, but also because the current price was too low, not attractive for traders to bring coffee to the two floors for registration. auction, forcing traders to calculate a more reasonable price.
By the end of August, Brazilian farmers will basically complete the harvest of the new crop this year, according to Safras & Mercados estimated at 68.1 million bags, of which Conilon Robusta coffee accounts for about 20 million bags. Harvest progress in some growing areas is slightly behind the 5-year average due to the need for social disruption due to the covid-19 pandemic. In general, the harvest of this year’s crop does not have any significant problems.
Meanwhile, the Reais exchange rate was still low, beneficial for the Brazilian to boost agricultural sales, although emerging market currencies increased in value thanks to the consecutive decline of USDX. causing commodity speculation to reduce purchasing power in the context of the US-China trade tension that has not seen a stop.
The latest Trader Commitment Report (CFTC) from the Arabica coffee market in New York shows that as of Tuesday, August 17, the non-commercial speculation division increased its net buying position by 27, 03% registered net buying of 16,526 lots, or 4,685,048 bags and was more likely to have increased after a period of more active trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from Robusta coffee market in London shows that, by the same reporting period, short-term speculation of money management funds increased their net buying position by 59.65% to subscribe. net was at 5,535 lots or 922,500 bags and was likely to have increased further after a period of more active trade since then.
As of Monday 24/8, Robusta coffee inventories certified and tracked by the London floor have decreased by 510 tons, or 0.47% down from the previous trading week, to registration at 109,080 tons. (equivalent to 1,818,000 bags, 60 kg bags).
Notification:
On Monday, August 31st, London market has a Summer bank holiday, closed all day without any transactions. New York markets open late after 18:30.
English (giacaphe.com)
