The supply-demand factor in the medium-term still dominates, so it is expected that coffee prices will soon reverse and increase again, especially when the May delivery term is about to end…
Robusta London chart May 2021 week 19 (from 10/05/2021 – 15/05/2021)
For the whole week of 19, the London market had 1 gaining session and 4 decreasing sessions. The price of Robusta coffee for July delivery fell all of $79, or 5.13%, to $1,460/ton and September delivery fell all of $75, or 4.8%, to $1,486. /ton, the reductions are very strong. Trading volume quite above average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 1 gaining session and 4 decreasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for July delivery fell all of 7.9 cents, or 5.17%, to 145 cents/lb and September delivery fell all of 7.85 cents, or 5.07%. , to 146.95 cents/lb, very strong declines. Trading volume very above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased by 1,300 – 1,500 VND, to fluctuate in the range of 32,700 – 33,200 VND/kg.
Double-exchange coffee prices returned to decline as the Reais strengthened and the currencies of emerging countries regained significant value against the USD, as data reports from leading economies showed signs of slowing and inflation increased rapidly. This has raised concerns that there will soon be monetary tightening measures, causing speculation to withdraw capital on derivatives exchanges, causing commodity prices to drop simultaneously, and haven assets have had a chance to rise sharply. strong. However, the market is still concerned that rapid inflation will not rule out the possibility that it will drag stocks up
The price of coffee has lost the achievement of last week, showing that speculation on coffee derivatives exchanges is very sensitive to fluctuations of the financial market in general. However, the supply-demand factor in the medium-term still dominates, so it is expected that coffee prices will soon reverse to rise again, especially when the May delivery term is about to end.
Brazil’s National Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), the body responsible for publishing economic data, has revised down its estimate for the 2021 coffee crop by 0.6 percent to 46.70 million bags. 31.7 million bags of Arabica coffee and 15 million bags of Conilon Robusta coffee. The market believes that IBGE’s figures are often 5-10% lower than reality, so they only come out after many independent national and international surveys, with an average of 32 million bags. Arabica and 21 million bags of Conilon Robusta.
English (giacaphe.com)
