The heightened risk aversion has led speculators to shift capital out of the coffee futures markets…
Robusta London chart July 2022, week 18 (from May 2, 2022 – May 7, 2022)
For the whole week of 18, the London market had 2 gaining sessions and 2 decreasing sessions in a row. The price of Robusta coffee for spot delivery in July fell by all 24 USD, or 1.14%, to 2,083 USD/ton and for September delivery fell all 30 USD, or 1.42%, to 2,079 USD. /ton, significant reductions. Trading volume on average.
Similarly, the New York market had 2 up and 3 down sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for spot delivery in July fell all of 11.65 cents, or 5.25%, to 210.45 cents/lb and for September delivery fell all of 11.45 cents, or 5. 16%, to 210.45 cents/lb, very strong declines. Trading volume on average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased from 500 to 600 VND, to range from 40,200 to 40,700 VND/kg.
Speculation to move capital flows away from the coffee derivatives markets to seek short-term profits in other more attractive markets, after the base interest rates of the Reais and the USD were raised quite strongly. , as speculated.
However, the reason for the decline in coffee futures prices is the pressure from this year’s crop being harvested in Conilon Robusta and Arabica regions, combined with the exchange rate. The weakening of the Reais has encouraged Brazilians to boost coffee sales.
The prolonged war in Eastern Europe, excessive inflation, the global economic recession and the still raging covid epidemic and China’s blockade policy made the already stagnant global supply chain even more serious, making the global supply chain worse. Investors fear increased risks not only in the short term.
The highlight of the week is the March Market Report of International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that global coffee exports this month have increased by 4.03% year-on-year. According to the ICO, in the past 12 months (from April 2021 to March 2022), Arabica coffee exports reached 80.90 million bags, down 2.14% and Robusta exports reached 48.90 million bags. increased 2.14% over the same period.
The ICO maintained its forecast for global coffee supply for coffee year 2021/2022 at 167.20 million bags, 2.10% lower than in the previous crop year, and unchanged its forecast for coffee consumption. Globally for this crop year at 170.30 million bags, an increase of 3.30% over the previous crop year.
From there, it can be seen that the global market will be short of 3.1 million bags of coffee in the crop year 2021/2022. This will no longer be a concern when Brazil has entered the coffee harvest of the new crop year 2022/2023 with an increase in production year on year. “Okay” of the cycle “two years one”.
The National Coffee Federation (FNC) in Colombia reported that coffee exports in April were only 845,000 bags, down 190,000 bags, or 18.36% lower than the same period last year. This has contributed to the cumulative coffee exports from Colombia in the first 7 months of the current coffee crop year 2021/2022 totaling 7,314,000 bags, down 832,000 bags, or 10.21% less than the same period in the same period. previous year.
Vietnam’s domestic market is still quiet as farmers continue to resist prices not only because London futures prices have fallen too low but also because fertilizer supplies have increased so they lose money at current prices.
English (giacaphe.com)
