Two-floor coffee prices recovered slightly when the market returned to concerns about the supply of the upcoming crop in Brazil …
Robusta London chart May / 2021 week 14 (April 5, 2021 – April 10, 2021)
For the whole week 14, London market had 2 decreasing sessions and 2 gaining sessions. Robusta coffee futures for immediate delivery in May increased by all USD 18, ie increased by 1.36%, to USD 1,343 / ton and futures for July delivery increased by all 13 USD, ie up 0.96%, to 1,363 USD per ton, significant increases. Trading volume above average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 1 down session and 3 up sessions and 1 mixed session. Arabica coffee futures for immediate delivery in May increased all 5.65 cents, or 4.65%, to 127.25 cents / lb and for July futures increased all 5.6 cents, or 4, 53%, to 129.15 cents / lb, sharp increases. Trading volume very high above average.
The price of coffee beans in the Central Highlands market increased by 200-300 VND, up fluctuating in the frame 31,600 – 32,200 VND / kg.
The price of coffee on two floors reversed to increase when the forecast for this year’s crop in Brazil was seriously lost, causing the excess global supply in the current crop 2020/2021 to turn to a shortage in the new crop year 2021/2022, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO) forecasts.
However, the rise on both derivatives is showing some caution due to the spread of the covid-19 epidemic, forcing many countries to step up social distancing measures, leading to global coffee consumption. will decline in the short term. Meanwhile, USDX strengthened and long-term yields on US Treasury bonds rose to a record level, attracting a massive speculative capital inflow, abandoning commodity exchanges in general.
It is also worth noting that Brazilian farmers have a habit of selling futures and do not know how much output they have sold in the new crop, when the Reais is low, it is very beneficial for them to sell their farm. production, regardless of the forecast of a shortage of supply in the next season.
The latest Trader Commitment Report (CFTC) from the Arabica coffee market in New York showed that as of Tuesday, March 30, the non-commercial speculation division had reduced their net buying position by 43, 31%, down registered to net buy in 12,236 lots, equivalent to 3,468,852 bags. This net long position is likely to decline further after a period of negative trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from Robusta coffee market in London shows that as of the same reporting period, short-term speculation of money management funds has cut their net buying position by 24.39%, down to the post. net buying volume was at 13,287 lots, equivalent to 2,214,500 bags. This net long position is likely to have declined further after a period of negative trade since then.
Inventory of Robusta coffee certified and tracked by the London floor, as of Monday 05/04 has decreased 1,100 tons, or 0.74% from a week earlier, down to registration at 147,680 tons ( equivalent to 2,461,333 bags, 60 kg bags).
It is expected that coffee price next week can not flourish despite the expiration of May option contract on both exchanges because short-term speculation still maintains a considerable net buying position.
English (giacaphe.com)
