Speculative capital flows leaving the market have put most commodity prices in general at a disadvantage, while the fundamentals of coffee futures markets have not changed.
For the whole week of May 2024, the London market had 2 increasing sessions at the beginning of the week and 3 decreasing sessions at the end of the week. Robusta coffee futures for delivery in March decreased by a total of 32 USD, or a decrease of 0.98%, to 3,237 USD/ton, while futures for delivery in May increased by a total of 4 USD, or an increase of 0.13%, to 3,116 USD/ton, slight increase/decrease. Trading volume remains quite high above average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 2 decreasing sessions interspersed with 3 increasing sessions in the middle of the week. Arabica coffee futures for March delivery decreased all 1.90 cents, or down 0.98%, to 191.95 cents/lb and May delivery futures decreased all 0.45 cents, or 0.24 cents. %, to 189 cents/lb, significant reductions. Trading volume remains well above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands market increased by 1,800 – 2,500 VND, fluctuating in the range of 77,700 – 79,000 VND/kg.
During the week, DXY increased 1.16% after the decision not to change the monetary interest rates of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the United Kingdom Central Bank (BoE), while the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) ) Brazil announced to reduce the Reais interest rate by 0.5% to 11.25%/year and maintain this reduction for the next times. Speculative capital flows withdrew from commodity markets in general to seek safe investment channels such as the USDX index and long-term US Treasury bonds.
Robusta coffee inventories issued by the London Exchange Certified and monitored, as of Friday, February 2, have decreased by 2,300 tons, or 7.65% compared to a week earlier, down to register at 27,780 tons ( about 463,000 bags, 60 kg bags), still hovering around a 15-year low, will continue to support Robusta coffee prices in the short term, in the context of the shutdown of the Europe-Asia maritime route passing through the Red Sea. nothing changed.
Anh Van (giacaphe.com)
