The market expects coffee prices on both exchanges to rebound strongly when the May delivery term ends, despite the forecast of significant rain across the coffee belt in southern Brazil.
Robusta London chart May 2021, week 20 (May 17, 2021 – May 22, 2021)
For the whole week of 20, the London market had 4 decreasing sessions and 1 increasing session. However, the price of Robusta coffee for spot delivery in July increased by all 18 USD, or 1.23%, to 1,478 USD/ton and for September delivery increased by 17 USD, or 1.14%. to $1,503/ton, significant increases. Trading volume on average.
Meanwhile, the New York market had 3 increasing sessions and 2 decreasing sessions. The price of Arabica coffee for July delivery increased by all 5.1 cents, or 3.52 percent, to 150.1 cents/lb and for September delivery, it increased by all 5.15 cents, or 3.0%. 50%, to 152.10 cents/lb, strong gains. Good trading volume above average.
The price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands market decreased by 100-200 VND, to range from 32,600 to 33,000 VND/kg.
The highlight of the week was the report of the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). According to the report, the production of Honduras in this year’s crop will decrease by 11.8% compared to last year’s crop, due to the largest producer of high-quality Arabica in Mexico – the Central American region devastated by hurricanes Eta and Iota in at the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the Colombian government is trying to find an agreement with the people to lift the blockade of highways transporting coffee to export ports. An estimated 900,000 bags of coffee exports have been delayed for more than two weeks, while the mid-year Mitaca crop has been harvested amid social restrictions due to the spread of the covid-19 epidemic.
Coffee prices on both floors tended to weaken at the end of the week as the decline of the Reais stimulated producing countries to sell hedges, while USDX strengthened on fears that rising inflation would prompt the Fed to consider interest rates. Basically, although the market is still worried about the significant decrease in Brazilian output this year.
The latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) report from the New York Arabica coffee market shows that the non-commercial speculative sector lifted its net long position by 2.34% in the trade week to Tuesday. on May 11 registered to be a net buy at 34,663 lots, equivalent to 9,826,807 bags. This net long position has most likely fallen back after a period of mostly negative trade since then.
The latest CFTC report from the London Robusta Coffee Market shows that, as of the same reporting period, short-term speculation by Money Management Funds increased their net long positions by 27.16% over a week. Previously, registered to be a net buy at 31,251 lots, equivalent to 5,208,500 bags. This net long position is likely to remain largely unchanged after a period of mostly steady trade since then.
As of Monday, May 17, inventories of certified Robusta coffee on the London floor have increased by 2,540 tons, or 1.62% from a week earlier, to 159,130 tons (equivalent to 2,652. 167 bags, 60 kg bags).
English (giacaphe.com)
