Arabica coffee recovers thanks to weaker dollar and forecast decline in Brazilian crop.
Arabica coffee in March 2025 ended the week at 325 cents/pound, a slight increase compared to last week at 319.50 cents while Robusta coffee price decreased compared to last week when this week’s closing price was at 319.50 cents. 5002$/ton, down from last week’s closing price of 5184$.
The consulting group of Safras & Mercado Company said that the total output of the 2025/26 Brazilian coffee crop is estimated to be about 62.45 million bags, down 5% over the same period last year. Of which arabica coffee output is expected to decrease by 15% to 38.35 million bags and robusta coffee output will be about 24.1 million bags.
The largest wet processing Arabica coffee producing country is Colombia, which is expected to produce around 13 million bags in the current coffee season from October 2024 to September 2020. 2025, which is an increase of about 3.95% compared to the previous crop year. Weather conditions are considered quite favorable for most of the past time for this country.
Information from market analyst Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group indicates that supplies from Vietnam are currently increasing as the harvest is expanding after a period of delay due to recent heavy rains.
The coffee market along with cocoa prices are estimated to remain at a high level due to uncertainties from the weather. Cocoa futures at the commodity exchange have surpassed $12,000 a ton for the first time, due to concerns about output in Ivory Coast. Thus, in 2024, cocoa prices will nearly triple due to a poor harvest in West Africa. This serves as a reminder for coffee growers, and a lesson for businessmen as they can bring up the issue of weather to compare the general impacts on crops.
The ratio of cocoa reserves to global consumption of 27% is the lowest in 47 years.
Since mid-November, cocoa was priced at about $7,000 in the US market. Compared to now, the price has increased more than 60%.
If we calculate the price of cocoa in London since the end of October, it has doubled so far.
Talking about the current coffee price situation, Arabica is also trading near a record high of 350 cents/pound.
Prices increased due to concerns about a poor crop in Brazil, the world’s leading producer and exporter of coffee varieties.
In addition, Brazil is said to have sold 79% of coffee output in the 2024/25 crop, compared to only 69% at the same time last year.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta coffee producer, prolonged rainy weather has slowed the harvest significantly.
Fritsch adds:
Therefore, in short, There are no signs that coffee prices will decrease.
The amount of certified graded Arabica coffee stored on the New York exchange increased by 15,850 bags on Thursday, reaching 981,565 bags.
Technically, Robusta coffee prices calculated on a March basis are likely to decline further next week with the support level currently at $4967/ton, technical analysis predicts that there will be buying. entered at this level, but a drop above that level would be worrisome, especially when supply is gradually increasing thanks to better weather, supporting the harvest next week.
Kinh Vu (giacaphe.com)
