At the end of the 52nd week, the last week of the year, coffee prices on the New York market marked a slight decrease compared to the previous week. The Arabica coffee market closed at 322.65 cents/pound, compared to last week’s close of 325 cents.
Robusta coffee prices on the London market were no better, losing the $5,000 mark to close at $4,953/ton compared to last week’s $5,002/ton, this is the second consecutive week of decline for this market ( All calculations are based on March 2025 prices).
Coffee prices have been under pressure this week as current supplies increased after ICE-monitored Arabica inventories rose to a 2-1/2-year high of 990,395 bags over the weekend.
The Brazilian real remained weak this week, further contributing to pushing down coffee prices.
Coffee prices have risen sharply this month on news of a smaller Brazilian coffee crop than last year. Arabica coffee calculated at March 2025 prices has reached the highest level in the futures market. In addition, Robusta coffee has also increased to its highest level in a month after Volcafe cut its estimate of Arabica coffee production. Brazil 2025/26 down to 34.4 million bags, down about 11 million bags from the previous estimate.
Robusta coffee prices are supported when rain in Vietnam slows down the robusta coffee harvest. A tropical depression has appeared quite unusually this season in the Hoang Sa region off the coast of the area between Vung Tau and Nha Trang, causing torrential rain throughout the week for the Central Highlands and the whole region. South Vietnam, significantly hindering the picking and drying of Robusta coffee during its peak harvest. According to the online weather website Windy, there is a high possibility of heavy rain in the Southern and Central Highlands regions until at least next Saturday.
The Arabica coffee growing region of Brazil’s Minas Gerais state received 43.6 mm of rain last week, just 83% of the historical average, Somar Meteorologia reported on Monday. .
The US Department of Agriculture’s semi-annual report last Wednesday had mixed information about coffee output. According to the Department of Foreign Agricultural Affairs, often referred to as FAS under the US Department of Agriculture, world coffee production in 2024/25 is forecast to increase about 4.0% year-on-year, to 174.855 million bags, Of which arabica production increased by 1.5% to 97.845 million bags and robusta production increased by 7.5% to 77.01 million bags.
In contrast, for inventories, FAS said the 2024/25 ending quantity decreased by 6.6% to a 24-year low of 20.867 million bags compared to 22.347 million bags in the 2023/24 crop year.
However, according to market observations, these forecasts do not seem to have much impact on coffee prices. Currently, they seem to have a more technical influence.
With holidays being celebrated in many countries this week and next, consumer markets are quiet while most coffee-producing countries are approaching peak harvest time.
Technically, the London market price is forecast to continue to decrease further next week with the level 1 support price being around $4898 and will likely be lower, but it will be difficult to fall past the 4785 mark. $/ton, this is the second barrier, which is considered quite solid.
The price difference between the London and New York markets calculated on the basis of March 2025 has widened to nearly reach the normal level as before the sharp increase in coffee prices in the market, currently the difference is at 96- 97 cents. Note that the difference over the last 6 months was only around 31-35 cents with the lower portion favoring Robusta coffees. This shows that the pressure on the Robusta market has decreased a lot and gradually returned to its true value.
According to news from The Hindu website, Karnataka coffee growers (a large growing state in Western India) are facing a loss of 15% of output due to recent difficult weather, and domestic prices have also skyrocketed. to a record high.
According to journalist Francis Stokes writing on this website:
Coffee growers in Karnataka are facing a challenging year as they face record high coffee prices but productivity has dropped significantly, possibly up to 15%, mainly is due to the erratic weather conditions of 2023 and early 2024. Although soaring global coffee prices offer a glimmer of hope, it does not alleviate the deep worries of growers whose crops seriously affected by quantity Rain is unpredictable and temperatures vary in this region.
Karnataka state is India’s largest coffee producing state, accounting for about 70% of the country’s total coffee output, and has been seriously affected by unusual weather, especially heavy and irregular monsoon rains. Unlike regions like Andhra Pradesh and Northeast, which depend on the northeast monsoon, Karnataka located in the southwest of India depends on the southwest monsoon. This year, the southwest monsoon is stronger than usual but irregular, causing trees to flower unevenly, ripen slowly and lose balance in fruit development, leading to significant yield loss.
The Coffee Board of India, which has been closely monitoring the impact of the weather, estimates that Karnataka’s coffee output will decline by more than 15% this year, with the three main coffee-producing districts being Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru and Hassan suffered the heaviest damage. “The rains are irregular, and the impact of these localized weather phenomena is felt more in Karnataka. Therefore, this region is witnessing uneven ripening, as the trees produce fruit at different stages of maturity, from ripe to green and dry,” said KG Jagadeesha, CEO and Secretary of the Coffee Council. said.
Unpredictable weather has slowed the ripening process and caused fruit drop, with fruit drop reported in areas with heavy rainfall. Farmers like from Devarapura said there were multiple flowers and fruits on the same tree, leading to uneven growth. “It’s not just quantity, it’s also quality. Uneven ripening affects both yield and quality.”
Farmers here worry that rising prices will not compensate for the loss of productivity.
The challenges facing coffee growers in the state of Karnataka highlight a broader problem that the agricultural sector worldwide is suffering: the impact of climate change on crop production. . For many farmers, unpredictable weather patterns are becoming the new norm and the industry must adapt to this uncertainty.
Record high coffee prices, new EUDR regulations on barriers to products grown on deforested land, climate change and rising demand for higher quality coffee have put pressure on businesses. businesses of all sizes over the past year, creating what many describe as a laugh-out-loud “challenging operating environment.”
To prepare for the end of the last week of 2024, we would like to take a look at the most notable major issues facing coffee during the year. Indeed, these are the biggest coffee business stories of the year, which will probably have an impact for many years to come.
First story
Vietnam’s Arabica market, which has just completed a year of turmoil because no one is buying after the company that normally exports Arabica, Mercon Coffee Group, filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 and was then allowed to continue doing business for sale. assets and repay creditors.
This time last year, the price of Arabica coffee in Vietnam was even lower than the normal Robusta variety, making growers of this type of coffee miserable. However, sometimes, or not by luck, when the price of both types of coffee then increased without stopping, it helped this type of coffee that no one bought to have its way out. This year, the situation is completely opposite, as a compensation for Arabica, when the price on the New York market reached its peak, we can only send congratulations to Vietnamese Arabica growing regions such as Son La and Quang Tri. , Lam Ha, we hope that farmers in this area will have a Tet beyond their expectations to make up for the losses and worries of last year.
Second story
The European Parliament officially postponed the implementation of the EUDR
The delay comes as tropical deforestation continues at an alarming rate, destroying about 3.7 million hectares per year, or roughly eight football fields per minute. What a terrible number.
Through this, perhaps we will understand and sympathize more easily why so many people are so anxious to immediately apply the EUDR law. It’s a crime. No one wants to kick their own feet. In fact, Europe I also don’t want to have to buy coffee to drink every day at a more expensive price, but with urgent environmental problems as well as global weather changes, one of the main causes comes from natural disasters. deforestation, it is clear that they cannot sit still anymore no action.
Contrasting views on EUDR
The report contrasts significantly with the dominant public positions adopted by many private corporations, NGOs and many farmer advocacy groups, calling for a delay in the implementation of the EUDR.
A group of major European roasters, Fairtrade International and the head of the International Coffee Organization are among dozens of parties who have urged a delay in implementing the regulation, warning of unintended consequences. the will of the law.
The most common saying is that the world’s major coffee-producing regions could be excluded from European trade in the future, leading to catastrophic economic impacts, especially for farmers. the world’s most vulnerable, who may have the least capacity to comply.
“Adapting to required sustainability will pose challenges for many small-scale farmers, who need both financial and technical support,” the report states. “The risk of excluding these farmers from the market does not come from regulations, but from corporate decisions.”
And final story Many articles have been published praising coffee and tea in the past, but now a number of other researchers have also confirmed the unique ability of coffee and tea to fight cancer. We invite you to refer to this article. Excerpt posted below:
A morning cup of coffee or an afternoon cup of tea can protect you from cancer.
A new evidence review suggests that coffee and tea consumption is associated with a reduced risk of cancers of the mouth, throat, head and neck (generally the upper extremities), according to the results. published in the journal Cancer.
“Even decaffeinated coffee has some positive effects,” Yuan-Chin senior researcher Amy Lee, an epidemiologist at the University of Utah School of Medicine, said in a press release from publisher of the magazine.
Head and neck cancer is the seventh most common cancer worldwide, with about 745,000 new cases and 364,000 deaths in 2020 alone, researchers say.
For this study, researchers pooled data from 14 previous studies involving more than 9,500 people with head and neck cancer and nearly 16,000 healthy people.
They found that people who drank more than four cups of coffee a day, compared with people who didn’t drink coffee, had distinct benefits:
- Reduces the risk of head and neck cancer by 17%.
- Reduce the risk of oral cancer by 30%.
- Reduces the risk of throat cancer by 22%.
Researchers found that drinking three to four cups of coffee a day was associated with a 41% reduced risk of hypopharyngeal cancer, a type of cancer that occurs at the base of the throat. Drinking tea also helps reduce the risk of this type of cancer by 29%.
Previous studies have found that drinking coffee inhibits biological activity that may support cancer, the researchers added. According to the daily health news section on NewsMax
This is also the last coffee news in 2024 with a lot of bittersweet information. We wish all Vietnamese coffee farmers and readers of Giacaphe.com a spring of good luck and good health and always support our common forum.
Kinh Vu (giacaphe.com)
