According to the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA), international pepper speculators are using a series of tricks to devalue Vietnam’s pepper. Meanwhile, the International Pepper Association (IPC) has inaccurately reported that Vietnam will achieve a record output, which is even more detrimental to Vietnam’s pepper exports.
Using “rumors” to “drink the pond” of Vietnamese pepper!
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In the past few days, the pepper market made a big surprise when the selling price dropped continuously. In Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc, Dak Lak, the price of bucket pepper has been “evaporated” by nearly 20 million VND/ton: From 130 – 135 million VND/ton to 115 – 120 million VND/ton and not yet signs to stop. It all started more than a dozen days ago, the International Pepper Association (IPC) did not know what to base it on, how to survey it, suddenly announced: Vietnam’s pepper output in the 2012 crop will reach a record of up to 140,000 tons, an increase of over 30,000 tons compared to 2011 causing the global pepper market to be greatly affected. Simply, Vietnam is an exporter of more than 50% of the world’s pepper market share, the IPC’s forecast that VN has such a record increase in production, it is true that farmers will only “die”!
However, is Vietnam’s pepper output as announced by IPC? What is the purpose of this rumour?
IPC’s information that Vietnam’s pepper production increased by 30% is completely baseless
According to the research of NNVN, the situation of pepper production in key areas is completely opposite to the unfounded assessment of IPC. Specifically, in many well-known pepper growers, good farming techniques, high yields for many years, but this crop year decreased sharply due to abnormal weather and a sharp increase in the area of old pepper. In household Mr. Nguyen Ba Thinh (hamlet 2, Loc An commune, Loc Ninh district, Binh Phuoc) cultivates 7,000 pepper posts, equivalent to 4 hectares, if the 2011 crop collected 17 tons of dried black pepper, the 2012 crop is estimated to only reach about 13 tons. , down to 23.5%. Similarly, in Ho Ta farmer household (Hoa An village, Nhon Hoa commune, Chu Puh district, Gia Lai) planted 2,000 pillars, equivalent to 1 hectare, collected 7 tons in 2011 and estimated 6 tons in 2012. In particular, at farmer household Tran Van Nur and Hoa An village, 5,000 poles were planted, equivalent to 2.5 ha. In 2011, 10 tons were collected, 4,000 poles died in 2012, the rest only 4 tons were collected.
In the famous pepper growing area Chu Se (Gia Lai), the situation is similar. Mr. Nguyen Van Luyen’s household (village 6, Ia Blang commune) planted 5 hectares, in 2011 collected 32 tons but in 2012 it was estimated that it was only 25 tons. Next to Le Phuoc Tuan’s household has 3.5 hectares, 15 tons in 2011, this year only 10 tons. According to many pepper growers, in addition to adverse weather factors, the pepper gardens that have been exploited for more than 10 years (estimated 30-40% of the total area) have now deteriorated, reduced productivity, and are easily damaged. infected with diseases, some old people have been dying, the replanting of pepper on this land must be after a few years of rotation.
What is the essence of this trick?
According to VPA, the survey results of the Eastern and Central Highlands provinces in February 2012 showed that the output of pepper in Binh Phuoc decreased by 10-15%, Dak Nong was equivalent to 2011, Dak Lak increased by 5%, Gia Lai decreased by 5%. 5-10%, Dong Nai down 30-40%, Ba Ria – Vung Tau down 5%. The general overview of the production results of pepper crop in 2012 nationwide in terms of output is estimated at 95,000 – 100,000 tons, down 10-15% compared to the 2011 crop.
However, what is the purpose of IPC’s “terrible” number of pepper production in Vietnam? Is it possible that international corporations and speculators influence IPC to lower the price of Vietnamese pepper for profit?
Be very alert to avoid falling into the cheap buying trap of international speculators
Talking to NNVN, Mr. Tran Duc Tung – Chief of Office of VPA affirmed that only the data of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam on pepper production, the only agency with national authority, has legal validity. Before that, all information is for reference only. In particular, IPC does not have the right to speak about Vietnam’s pepper output. On what basis do they make rumors that Vietnam’s 2012 pepper output reached 140,000 tons? There is information that, in fact, IPC is putting pressure to increase the fee collection rate of Vietnam for IPC. On the other hand, international speculators took the opportunity of IPC to spread this “rumor”, and launched many tricks to force the price of Vietnamese pepper to import and seek profit.
Many pepper industry experts affirmed that Vietnam needs to be very alert to the tricks of international pepper speculators, especially India. Specifically, Indian pepper in the golden age reached nearly 100,000 tons, but in recent years it has dropped to only 45,000-50,000 tons/year, not enough for more than 1 billion people in the country. Because production is not enough to eat, India has to import in large quantities both for domestic supply and for export. India’s pepper crop is harvested in the first quarter of each year (coincident with Vietnam) and so far all of India’s pepper production has been consumed. They started to turn to Vietnam to find sources of goods to speculate for the next few months. Everyone knows that India is a world leader in pepper, now they are looking for ways to spread fake news on the Kochi and Sing exchanges, mainly aimed at Vietnam in order to lower the price, collect a lot of cheap goods and until July 2012 onwards. launch goods to sell, push prices up to seek profit.
Meanwhile, Indonesia and Malaysia are the two most pepper producing and exporting countries after India. Before the current pepper war, they used the trick of “Son of a mountain, a tiger to fight”, if Vietnam was weak, caught in the middle of Indian and international speculators, massively pushing goods to sell at cheap prices, they immediately jumped into importing Vietnamese pepper. After that, they waited until July 2012 for their country’s pepper crop to harvest, then launched the purchased goods to sell at a high price, following India.
On the Vietnamese side, up to now, the amount of consumption in the population and enterprises is still quite large. Especially, businesses that buy at high prices, plus “terrible” interest rates on bank loans, are now forced to export to cut losses (mainly cut bank interest rates) in order to turn around. If Vietnamese enterprises increase their exports at low prices, they will immediately fall into the traps of international and Indian speculators, and at the same time, it will be difficult for businesses to achieve their expectations (export cheaply, buy cheaply) because people have the mentality of embracing their goods and refusing to sell them. when the price is low (not selling below 130 million VND/ton). An expert also warned, Vietnam should be wary of FDI enterprises trading pepper in Vietnam: In exporting, they transfer cheap prices to the parent company in order to evade taxes and thus distort market prices in Vietnam.
Mr. Tran Duc Tung – Chief of VPA Office: In the first quarter of 2012, Vietnam only exported about 31,000 tons of pepper, the rest up to 70,000 tons are still in Vietnam, so international corporations and speculators are very coveted, looking for ways for Vietnam to sell out massively. with low price. Therefore, before the “war” is taking place and will be fierce, the solution of Vietnam is: To be alert to all the “tricks” of the enemy, farmers agree to cooperate with enterprises, so temporarily store goods in at current low prices.
Promoting lessons learned that Vietnam’s pepper industry has done over the past few years are: Take control, lead and coordinate the export progress and market prices. Do not rush to sell off at a time, make the price go down, wait for the opportunity to export when the price increases in July, August, September onwards (price can reach 150-160 million VND/ton of black pepper).
The current advantage is that the Government and banks are drastically managing the macro-economy, strengthening credit, lowering interest rates, creating favorable conditions for farmers and businesses in production and business in the coming months. .
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