Russia-Ukraine conflict: Vietnam’s agricultural industry is “contagious”

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According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the total export and import turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the first two months of 2022 is estimated at nearly $14.2 billion, up 15.8% over the same period last year. period of the previous year.

In which, export reached about 8 billion USD and import reached 6.2 billion USD. This result helped the agricultural industry have a trade surplus of 1.8 billion USD, up 86.7% over the same period last year.

INCREASE PRICE OF Pangasius, IMPRESSIVE RICE EXPORT

In February 2022, export turnover of agricultural, forestry and fishery products is estimated at nearly 3.3 billion USD; increased 21.8% compared to February 2021 but decreased 31.4% compared to January 2022. Accumulating 2 months, export turnover is estimated at about 8 billion USD, up 20.9% over the same period last year.

In which, the export of main agricultural products is estimated at over 3.2 billion USD, up 10.2%; livestock products reached 54.1 million USD, down 3.5%; seafood reached nearly 1.5 billion USD, up 47.2%; main forest products reached nearly 2.9 billion USD, up 17.0%; production input group is about 367 million USD, 2.1 times higher than the same period last year.

From the opposite direction, import turnover of agricultural, forestry, fishery products and agricultural materials in the first two months of the year was estimated at over US$6.2 billion, up 10% over the same period in 2021.

In which, the import value of main agricultural products is estimated at nearly 4 billion USD, up 17.6%; livestock products reached about 470.2 million USD, down 14.3%; group of aquatic products is estimated at 332.8 million USD, up 11.1%; the main group of forest products about 466.4 million USD, down 3.1%; production input group is about 982.6 million USD, up 2.8%.

The highlight in the picture of agricultural exports in the first 2 months of this year is that pangasius has a very high selling price, and exports of rice and wooden furniture have both grown impressively. However, export turnover of vegetables and fruits decreased sharply due to the influence of China’s erratic opening and closing of border gates.

Pangasius exports achieved impressive achievements with a turnover of USD 220 million, up 83.3% compared to the first 2 months of last year. Pangasius export growth is not only in output but also thanks to high export prices.

The price of raw pangasius in the Mekong Delta increased sharply after a long time at a low level due to increased export demand, while there was a scarcity of supply of raw pangasius for export. Specifically, the price of 0.8 – 1.1 kg/head variety ranged from 27,500 to 29,000 VND/kg, an increase of 7,500 – 9,000 VND/kg over the same period last year and an increase of more than 4,000 VND/kg compared to the previous period. Tet.

The excitement in rice exports at the beginning of this year is clearly reflected in the turnover of the first two months of 2022 reaching US$441 million, up 22.3% over the same period last year. A positive signal for the rice industry, recently Korea also announced that, in 2022, the country will allocate a tariff quota of 55,112 tons of rice imported from Vietnam to Korea at a preferential rate of 5% .

With the rice industry, exports have been active since the beginning of the year, especially in large enterprises. Loc Troi Agricultural Products Joint Stock Company, a subsidiary of Loc Troi Group, completed the first year delivery of more than 4,500 tons of rice, worth more than 3 million USD, including fragrant rice, white rice, brown rice and sticky rice. This amount of rice was delivered in turn from the beginning of the year to mid-February 2022 to long-term partners such as Italy, France, Canada, Hong Kong, Singapore, Philippines, Kuwait…

Similarly, Trung An Hi-tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company (TAR) has also exported more than 11,000 tons to Korea and many shipments of fragrant rice to other markets.

Businesses said that the rice export market this year will be more favorable than last year. The reason is that many markets are recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, many supply chains that were broken due to the pandemic are also being reconnected, helping to increase purchasing power.

In addition, the global instability, which is the recent armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, also makes people in many countries continue to pay more attention to food reserves.

According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), this year’s rice exports are expected to remain at just over 6 million tons and may reach 6.3 million tons, which is the same or insignificant increase compared to last year. 2021. This year, Vietnam will continue to exploit the advantages from the EVFTA Agreement to boost rice exports to the EU, with a volume of no less than 60,000 tons, because the quality of Vietnamese rice has changed in the eyes of importers.

Worrying about RUSSIA AND UKRAINA MARKET

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in 2021, the export of agricultural, forestry and fishery products from Vietnam to Russia will reach about $550 million. In which, seafood exports are about 164 million USD, coffee 173 million USD, vegetables and fruits 16.6 million USD, cashew nuts 60 million USD, rubber 32 million USD; tea and pepper each of more than 19 million USD; wood and wood products $ 7.7 million, rice $ 1.5 million …

Commenting that Russia is a potential market for Vietnamese agricultural products, both in terms of export and import, Mr. Nguyen Do Anh Tuan, Director of the Department of International Cooperation (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development), admitted that, Armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the short term will greatly affect both the export of agricultural products to Russia as well as the import of goods from Russia to Vietnam.

From a business perspective, Ms. Ngo Thi Thu Hong, General Director of Ameii Vietnam Joint Stock Company, an enterprise that exports many agricultural products to Russia, said that as soon as the fighting broke out, the market’s orders This school had to stop due to no flights to transport. In addition, stopping orders and no flights also makes businesses unable to build freight for partners’ orders.

“Currently, many Vietnamese enterprises that want to promote exports to Russia have to recalculate. Therefore, in the immediate future, import and export businesses need to stick to new regulations and information from Russian banks, at least to ensure payments in trade.

Mr. Nguyen Do Anh Tuan, Director of International Cooperation Department (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development)

“Currently, we are exporting mangoes and some frozen vegetables and fruits to the Russian market. When there was a fight, flights were affected, so we couldn’t do freight as well as transport goods to this market,” worried Ms. Ngo Thi Thu Hong.

Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe, General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), said that in the first two months of this year, seafood exports to Russia were estimated to reach 32 million USD, while seafood exports were estimated to reach Russia. to Ukraine reached nearly 7 million USD.

“Currently, there are about 50 Vietnamese enterprises licensed to export seafood to Russia. There are businesses that have delivered goods to their partners in Russia but have not yet received the money and are worried about how difficult it will be to collect money when Russia is removed from the SWIFT system. On the other hand, there are companies in some other countries, which have previously imported Vietnamese seafood for processing and export to Russia, have also been affected, leading to a halt in buying Vietnamese seafood, “said Truong Dinh Hoe. .

The biggest worry of the seafood industry during the Russia-Ukraine crisis is the rising price of gasoline in the world and in Vietnam. Russia is the world’s top oil exporter, accounting for about 12% of global trade. Russia also plays an important role in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC).

The recent continuous increase in oil prices has caused fishermen to struggle, many boats have stopped going out to sea to catch fish because they are worried that profits will not be enough to cover fuel costs. High gasoline prices not only greatly affect the fishing activities of fishermen, but also significantly increase the costs and production costs of seafood processing enterprises. Currently, the shipping charges for exporting seafood to Europe, the US… have increased.

ACTIVE SUPPLY OF FERTILIZER TO REDUCE DEPENDENCE

The biggest “horror” for our country’s agricultural production in 2021 is the skyrocketing price of fertilizer and animal feed, which has affected both farming and animal husbandry. The fertilizer industry and the petroleum industry are organically related, because some fertilizers are incremental products of the petroleum processing industry. Fertilizer is also an agricultural input that Vietnam is heavily dependent on imported sources.

Conflict between Russia and Ukraine: Vietnam's agricultural industry is

Currently, Russia and China are the two leading fertilizer exporters in the world. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in retaliation for economic sanctions, Russia is not only restricting petroleum exports, but also introducing measures to limit fertilizer exports. This has had a significant impact on the domestic fertilizer market.

According to analysts, Russia’s annual fertilizer production reaches more than 50 million tons, equivalent to 13% of the total global supply. In which, Phosagro, Uralchem, Uralkali, Acron and Eurochem are the largest producers and mainly export to Asia and Brazil. Immediately after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, the price of urea on the New Orleans commodity market increased by 25%, reaching $700/ton compared with $560/ton at the beginning of the week.

Currently, the prices of domestically produced fertilizers and imported fertilizers have increased by about 80-130% compared to last year. In which, urea is the commodity with the most fluctuations when increasing by about 130%, to 15.5-16 million VND/ton in Ho Chi Minh City. HCM. Import price in January 2022 was about 461.6 USD/ton, compared with 262.4 USD/ton in the same period last year, up 76%.

According to statistics of the General Department of Customs (Ministry of Finance), in January 2022, Vietnam imported 322,731 tons of fertilizer, equivalent to 153.6 million USD. In which, Vietnam bought 53,773 tons from Russia, equivalent to nearly 29.6 million USD, accounting for 16.7% of the total volume and 19.3% of the total turnover compared to December 2021. In 2021, Vietnam spends 143.5 million USD to import 386,193 tons of fertilizer from Russia.

The increase in the price of fertilizers is “heavy” on the shoulders of farmers. To deal with this problem, in the context that farmers are planting the winter-spring crop, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development recommends using fertilizers sparingly and effectively. At the same time, it is suggested that domestic fertilizer manufacturers need to maintain maximum production capacity, supply in a timely manner, prioritize fertilizer supply to serve domestic agricultural production needs. respond to fluctuations in world markets.

Ông Truong Dình Hòe, General Secretary ký  Processing Association và  Export Vietnamese seafood (VASEP)
Mr. Truong Dinh Hoe, General Secretary of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP)

In the first two months of this year, it was estimated that seafood exports to Russia reached 32 million USD, while seafood exports to Ukraine reached nearly 7 million USD. Currently, there are about 50 Vietnamese enterprises licensed to export seafood to Russia. There are businesses that have delivered goods to their partners in Russia but have not yet received the money and are worried about how difficult it will be to collect money when Russia is removed from the SWIFT system. On the other hand, there are companies in some other countries, which have previously imported Vietnamese seafood for processing and exported to Russia, have also been affected, leading to the cessation of buying Vietnamese seafood.

Ông Nguyen Quoc Toan, Director of the Department of Processing và  PháDevelopment of the nông product market
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Toan, Director of the Department of Agricultural Product Processing and Market Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development)

In order to promote the export of agricultural products in the coming months, we will regularly exchange and provide quick information on prices, output and production situation. At the same time, it will advise the Government on solutions to remove the congestion of agricultural products at the border gate. Continue to guide units and enterprises to comply with Orders 248 and 249 of the General Administration of Customs of China. Report to the Prime Minister on the results of the implementation of Orders 248 and 249.

The next tasks are, to continue promoting the opening of agricultural markets with Peru, Australia, Brazil, China, the United States, ASEAN, Russia, the Czech Republic… Organize Vietnam Agricultural Product Week at EXPO 2022 Dubai and work with a number of bilateral partners with India, Argentina, UAE; Meeting with the EU Executive Vice President’s delegation to promote cooperation in the field of climate change within the framework of implementing the results of the COP26 Conference and combating IUU fishing, proposing solutions and petitioning the EU to remove the card gold for Vietnam’s seafood industry. Organized “Forum to connect overseas businessmen, promote trade and investment in the agricultural sector”.

According to VnEconomy.vn

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