Although the world pepper market is still scarce, it is predicted that Vietnam will harvest 140,000 tons of the 2012 crop, 40,000 tons more than the initial estimate, which has stopped the price increase of this item.
According to the prediction of the International Pepper Association (IPC), in 2012 the world will be short of about 51,000 tons of pepper, while global pepper production is estimated to increase by 7.3%, equivalent to 21,755 tons, ie from 298,400 tons. of 2011, to 320,155 tons. IPC also predicts that global consumption will increase by 7,550 tonnes to 371,000 tonnes from just 363,450 tonnes last year.
This figure is based on the report on the production and consumption of pepper of the member countries and the assessment of the IPC at the 39th Annual Meeting held from 22 to 26 November 2011 in Lombok, Indonesia.
Reportedly, the 7.3% increase in global production that IPC gave was mainly from Vietnam (up 10% to 110,000 tons), Indonesia (up 8,000 tons, or 24%, to 41,000 tons) and Malaysia. (up 1,250 tons, or 5%, to 26,500 tons).
IPC also expects Indian pepper production to drop by 5,000 tonnes, or 10.4%, to 43,000 tonnes due to weather and pests.
However, IPC has made the first preliminary forecast of pepper production in 2012 of its member countries: Vietnam 140,000 tons, India 42,000 tons, Indonesia 35,000 tons, Brazil 30,000 tons, Malaysia 20,000 tons, Sri Lanka 15,000 tons. ton.
The Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) in the report of the fourth quarter of 2011, taking into account the advantages and disadvantages of each specific production area, affirmed: In general, the 2011 pepper crop was evaluated. is a good season, the output is estimated at over 110,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons compared to the 2010 crop.
Then, in order to fully and accurately evaluate the 2012 pepper crop, VPA organized a field trip to conduct a field survey, divided into 2 phases. Phase 1 survey in 2 provinces Dong Nai and Ba Ria-Vung Tau on December 29 and 30, 2011 (see here). Phase 2 in Binh Phuoc province and Central Highlands provinces from February 14 to 17, 2012 (see here). The survey team made the following comments: General overview of production results in 2012 pepper crop nationwide in terms of output is estimated at 95,000 – 100,000 tons, down 10-15% compared to 2011. At the end of the harvest season, data will be reported to the provinces. more exactly. The opinion of the survey team was initially only at the reference level.
At the beginning of 2012, VPA issued a report summarizing data, estimating the implementation of the 2012 plan as follows: In terms of output, total revenue was 109.668 tons, of which 6 key provinces 90,168 tons, other provinces 19,500 tons. (with notes from local sources).
According to the statistics report of the Customs, pepper exports in 2011 reached 123,808 tons of pepper of all kinds with a turnover of 732.2 million USD, up 5.9% in volume and 73.8% in value. compared to the same period last year.
Although it is easy to see that a fairly large amount of pepper is exported to the Chinese market by the border trade route, it is impossible to make statistics. IPC has repeatedly asked for specific numbers on this market, but VPA has not been able to reply. Therefore, if domestic consumption is included, the annual output figure will not be around 100,000-110,000 tons.
Meanwhile, the peak of the world pepper market on March 19, in India, the price of pepper rose to Rs 400/kg, selected pepper Rs 413/kg and futures rose to Rs 450.05/kg. new historical landmark. In particular, the export price of Indian pepper is higher than that of other origins by more than $1,000/ton, unprecedentedly high. The price of pepper futures on the NCDEX-India exchange was pushed to the difference with the price on the SMX-Singapore exchange of approximately $2,000/ton.
On April 5, information appeared on some websites: The latest estimates show that the supply of black pepper in Vietnam, the world’s largest producer and exporter of pepper, is quite abundant. halted the upward trend in the global pepper trading markets. According to the latest estimates, Vietnam’s pepper output in this harvest may reach 135-140,000 tons, compared with previous estimates at 100-110,000 tons.
Yesterday afternoon, April 8, the price of black pepper in Ba Ria-Vung Tau continued to decrease slightly to 118,000 VND/kg, in the Central Highlands to 114,000-115,000 VND/kg, but the transaction volume was not significant. Almost both domestic and export pepper markets are in a state of waiting for a clearer trend in the future.
Compared to the record high of nearly 160,000 VND/kg at the end of October and early November of last year, the price of pepper has now decreased by 50,000 VND/kg, equivalent to approximately 30%.
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