Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
Rubber export volume in October 2020 is estimated at 200,000 tons with a value of $ 266 million, bringing the volume and value of rubber exports in the first 10 months of 2020 to reach 1.31 million tons and $ 1.69 billion. A slight increase of 0.8% in volume but a decrease of 4.2% in value over the same period in 2019. China, India and South Korea are the 3 largest rubber consumption markets of Vietnam in the first 9 months. by 2020, accounting for 75.7%, 4.0% and 2.2% market share respectively. In the first 9 months of 2020, rubber export value decreases in most markets, except China (+ 10.6%) and Pakistan (+ 22.6%). The average export rubber price in the first 9 months of 2020 reached 1,278.4 USD / ton, down 6.2% over the same period in 2019.
Estimated volume of imported rubber in October 2020 reached 127 thousand tons with a value of $ 158 million, bringing the total volume and value of imported rubber in the first 10 months of 2020 to 809 thousand tons and $ 1.05 billion. , up 39.8% in volume and 9% in value over the same period in 2019. In the first 9 months of the year Cambodia (accounting for 21.9% market share), South Korea (15.7%), Japan ( 11.2%) are the three main rubber suppliers for Vietnam.
On the world market, rubber prices at the Osaka Commodity Exchange (OSE) rebounded sharply in October 2020, setting a high level in more than 3 years supported by lingering concerns about supply, while solid demand from China aroused concerns about supply shortages. Ending the session on October 21, the price of rubber in March 2021 term contract reached 217.4 yen / kg, an increase of 31.9 yen (equivalent to 17.2%) compared to the first session of the month and is the same level. the highest level over the past 3 years. Physical rubber prices on Asian markets increased and decreased in contrast with the futures market. Specifically, Thailand RSS3 on October 22 was at $ 2.25 / kg, up $ 0.3 / kg; STR20 Thailand at 1.61 USD / kg, up 0.18 USD / kg; SMR20 Malaysia at 1.62 USD / kg, up 0.25 USD / kg; SIR20 Indonesia at 1.62 USD / kg, up 0.26 USD / kg compared to October 5. ANRPC forecasts that the trend of rubber prices will continue in the next 2 months, mainly due to the recovery of China’s manufacturing sector, amid a rise in car sales in India and the US. launched a new economic stimulus program. The rebound of rubber prices is also due to limited supply due to the rainy season in Thailand and the shortage of labor in rubber growing areas due to Covid-19 epidemic prevention measures affecting the exploitation of latex. su.
The world auto industry recovered from the Covid-19 epidemic, especially in China. Last September marked the first month the auto industry recovered almost globally, after a long period of decline caused by the epidemic. The Chinese auto industry recovered the earliest, right from the summer, and now has 3 consecutive months of new car sales growth. Passenger car consumption of China in September 2020 increased by 7.3% over the same period in 2019, reaching 1.91 million units. In particular, India’s passenger car consumption in September 2020 increased sharply by 31.2% over the same period last year, the largest increase in 27 months. Car consumption in the US, European markets … also started to recover after a period of sharp decline due to the anti-Covid-19 blockade policy. Thailand’s exports of rubber gloves have continuously increased, adding 154.9% in September 2020 over the same period in 2019, bringing total exports in the first 9 months of 2020 to increase 61.4%, due to epidemics. increasing demand for medical products.
Heavy rains affect the rubber production of key producing countries, especially Thailand and Vietnam. Protests in Thailand also affect all manufacturing sectors, including the rubber mining industry. In the latest report released in mid-October, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) raised its forecast for global rubber consumption in 2020 by 67,000 tons to 12,611 million tons, despite that figure. still 8.4% lower than in 2019. The reason for the increase adjustment is more optimistic about the Chinese market after the recently released economic data. China is forecasted to consume 1.38 million tons of rubber in the fourth quarter of 2020, close to the level of 1.40 tons of the same period last year; and the total volume of rubber imported into this country in 2020 will increase by 1.6% compared to 2019. Regarding supply, natural rubber production this year is facing difficulties due to epidemics that scarce labor force. and make transportation difficult. World natural rubber production fell 8.7% in the first eight months of 2020, to 7.778 million tons, and is forecast to drop another 3% in the remaining 4 months of 2020. ANRPC forecasts full year production. 2020 will drop 6.8% from 2019, to 12,901 million tons, mainly due to the decline in Thailand and India. Thailand’s production is forecast to decrease by 332,000 tons, to 4,478 million tons.
On October 23, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it would impose temporary anti-dumping measures on some rubber products imported from the US, South Korea and the European Union from October 28, 2020, in particular, EPDM synthetic rubber (ethylene propylene diene monomer (M-class)) – which could drive the country’s demand for natural rubber. However, the demand forecasts have many uncertainties related to the global economic recovery, as the Covid-19 epidemic is still complicated, especially in the US and Europe, posing a risk. Many countries have to re-blockade to prevent the spread of the epidemic, in the midst of the context that the SARS-CoV-2 virus vaccine will not be available in the market in large quantities anytime soon.
Domestic rubber raw material market in October 2020 changed slightly compared to September 2020. In Binh Phuoc, the purchase price of water latex increased by 5 VND / degree to 275 VND / degree, rubber latex increased to 12,500 VND / kg. Latex price in Dong Nai increased to 10,400 VND / kg
