If in 2022, the Chinese market accounts for 74.62% of Vietnam’s total rubber exports, then in 9 months of 2023, this number has reached 99.73%. However, Vietnam’s export rubber price is the lowest among the 5 largest rubber exporting countries to the Chinese market…
According to the General Department of Customs, in September 2023, Vietnam exported 210,000 tons of rubber, earning 270 million USD, down 5.6% in volume and down 6.1% in value compared to August 2023. Compared to September 2022, rubber export turnover in September 2023 increased by 8.5% in volume, but decreased by 3.7% in value. The average rubber export price in September 2023 is at 1,283 USD/ton, down 0.6% compared to August 2023 and down 11.2% compared to September 2022.
CHINESE MARKET ACCOUNTS OVER 99%
Accumulated in the first 9 months of 2023, rubber exports will reach 1.42 million tons, worth 1.89 billion USD, up 1.6% in volume but down 17.4% in value compared to the same period in 2022.
Vietnam’s exported rubber types are mainly pre-processed rubber, including natural rubber and synthetic rubber (HS 400280), Latex, SVR 10, SVR 3L, SVR CV60, RSS3, SVR 20…
Many types of rubber exports decreased in both volume and value compared to the same period in 2022. However, the export of some types of rubber still grew well compared to the same period in 2022, notably: Regenerated rubber, Skim block, SVR CV40, RSS4… but these types only account for a small proportion of Vietnam’s total rubber exports.
Regarding export prices, the average export prices of all rubber types decreased sharply compared to the same period in 2022, of which the sharpest price decreases were: Skim block decreased by 28.1%; Latex decreased by 24.3%; RSS3 decreased by 22.7%; mixed rubber (HS: 4005) decreased by 22.4%; SVR 10 reduced by 20.9%…
Rubber exports to China accounted for 99.73% in volume and 99.56% in value of the country’s total mixture of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in 8 months, with more than 807,000 tons, worth priced at 1.09 billion USD, up 19.4% in volume but down 3.5% in value compared to the same period in 2022.
In 2022, Vietnam will export 2.14 million tons of rubber, worth 3.3 billion USD, an increase of 9.7% in volume and more than 1% in value compared to 2021. This is the year to record exports. Highest rubber export in the last 5 years in both volume and value. In 2022, China will continue to be the leading market for rubber consumption in Vietnam, accounting for 74.62% of the country’s total rubber exports, with 1.6 million tons, worth 2.38 billion USD. , up 14.6% in volume and 4.3% in value compared to 2021.
[ Trung Quốc mua đến 99,78% hỗn hợp cao su tự nhiên của Việt Nam ]WHEN WILL EXPORT RUBBER PRICES DECREASE?
Rubber exports are “putting eggs in one basket”, when the Chinese market from 74.62% of the country’s total rubber exports in 2022, has increased to 99.73% of the total natural rubber volume. Our country’s natural rubber and synthetic rubber exports in the first 9 months of 2023.
Explaining the cause of this phenomenon, the Vietnam Rubber Association said that Vietnam’s rubber export prices in 2022 and the three quarters of 2023 are the lowest among rubber export competitors. With the advantage of low price and abundant rubber supply, Chinese partners always like to buy semi-processed rubber from Vietnam.
According to statistics from Trade Map, the price of rubber exported from Vietnam to China in 2022 is at 1,267 USD/ton, the lowest among the top 5 countries exporting natural rubber to China. In 2022, Vietnam accounts for 13.1% of rubber and rubber products imported into China, being the second largest supplier, second only to Thailand with 28.3%.
Besides, the compatibility in rubber supply and demand between Vietnam and China is also an important factor helping to increase exports to this market. Specifically, natural rubber and synthetic rubber are the two rubber product lines that account for the largest import market share of China with 28.2% and 63.3% of total imported rubber. These are also the two main types of rubber in Vietnam with a proportion of 81.5% of total rubber exports; The remaining 18.5% is deeply processed rubber.
Looking back at the export journey over the past 9 months, it shows that rubber exports decreased sharply in the first months of the year. Rubber exports fell to their lowest level in April 2023 with 87,749 tons and worth 121.79 million USD, down 24.3% in volume and down 25.7% in value compared to March 2023; down 13.9% in value compared to April 2022.
Due to this decline, rubber exports in the first 4 months of the year decreased by 23.7% in value compared to the same period in 2022. Since May 2023, rubber exports have gradually recovered. In the months of July, August, and September, rubber exports continuously grew in volume compared to the same period last year, however, due to a sharp decrease in export prices, the turnover value was always lower than the same period last year. last.
Over the past 2 years, export rubber prices have continuously decreased. The average price of Vietnam’s rubber exports in 2022 decreased by 7.8% compared to 2021. The Vietnam Rubber Association explained that the decrease in rubber prices in 2021 and 2022 is due to the impact of the Covid pandemic. , China’s “closing” has had a negative impact on the rubber market. Entering the beginning of this year, many forecasts said that China’s reopening would help rubber export prices recover. However, in the past 9 months, export rubber prices continued to decline.
However, up to this point, many comments are still optimistic that rubber prices will grow again in the last quarter of the year and the beginning of 2024. Currently, oil prices are increasing, encouraging users to switch from high synthetic rubber derived from petroleum to use natural rubber. In the context of Vietnam’s rubber exports falling to negative levels, optimistic signals in the main market, China, still rekindle the hopes of Vietnamese rubber exporters.
China is ambitious to bring electric vehicle, hybrid vehicle and automobile manufacturers into the industry, leading to a growing demand for imported rubber for tire production.
Mr. Pham Quang Anh, Director of Vietnam Commodity News Center commented: “China plays an important role on the world rubber trade “map”, especially the import demand in the coming time is very large. . It is forecasted that China’s rubber demand will increase in the last months of the year, so world rubber prices from now until the end of the year may move towards the price range of 1,700-1,800 USD/ton if the Chinese economy and industry This country’s automobile production has met expectations.”
Faced with clear advantages and needs, the Vietnam Rubber Association recommends that rubber exporting enterprises need to have a strategy to increase the proportion of processed rubber rather than raw rubber to increase export value. With the actual situation in the first 3 quarters of the year, it is expected that rubber exports in the last 3 months will no longer have negative growth. However, it is forecasted that rubber export turnover will hardly reach the target of 3.5 billion USD and will only stop at 3 billion USD.
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