DXY reversed to increase from a 5-month low, causing speculation to shift capital flows, while dry information in Espírito Santo state, the main conilon producing state, has supported London futures prices to increase continuously…
At the end of the weekend trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London increased for the fifth consecutive session. The January delivery term increased by 32 USD, to 2,857 USD/ton and the March delivery term increased by 28 USD, to 2,825 USD/ton, very significant increases. Trading volume remains quite high above average.
On the contrary, Arabica coffee prices on ICE US – New York floor adjusted down. March delivery futures decreased 1.30 cents, to 189.30 cents/lb and May delivery futures decreased 0.45 cents, to 186.80 cents/lb, slight decreases. Trading volume is above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 500 – 600 VND, fluctuating in the range of 66,000 – 66,700 VND/kg. Fresh coffee prices trade around 13,800 VND/kg.
Arabica coffee prices slowed down after adjusting Brazil’s 2023/2024 crop production estimate by 0.7 million bags by the Agricultural Product Supply and Forecasting Company (Conab). According to Conab, the Arabica coffee crop, accounting for 70.7% of total production, will have 38.9 million bags, an increase of 18.9% compared to the previous harvest. Conab also expects Conilon production to reach 16.17 million bags, down 11.2% compared to the previous crop. This caused coffee futures prices to move in opposite directions yesterday.
Meanwhile, farmers in the main producing countries have limited sales of new crops in anticipation of higher prices, causing spot Robusta goods to continue to be tightened, pushing London prices up throughout the week.
Dry weather in Espírito Santo state could cause the state’s Conilon Robusta coffee output to decrease by 15-25% in 2024, contributing to pushing futures prices to a 15-year high, Reuters reported.
During the week, consulting firm StoneX warned that the outlook for the Conilon harvest in Espírito Santo had worsened.
Consulting company HedgePoint Global Market has also said that the upcoming El Nino weather phenomenon could cause the output of Espírito Santo, the main conilon producing state, to decrease by up to 30%.
DXY reversed to increase from a 5-month low, causing speculation to shift capital flows to look for markets with more attractive profits, causing strong fluctuations in commodity derivatives exchanges. Oil prices increased slightly but gold prices decreased.
English (giacaphe.com)
