Coffee traders in the Southeast Asia region said that it will not be easy to buy Robusta coffee from farmers in this region if they do not offer a satisfactory price difference compared to the London futures price…
At the end of the weekend trading session, Robusta coffee prices on ICE Europe – London continued to recover. The March delivery term increased by 9 USD, to 2,795 USD/ton and the May delivery term increased by 13 USD, to 2,727 USD/ton, slight increases. Trading volume remains below average.
In contrast, Arabica coffee prices on the ICE US – New York floor continued to decline for the third session. March delivery futures decreased another 2.75 cents, to 182.80 cents/lb and May delivery futures decreased another 2.40 cents, to 181.10 cents/lb, very significant decreases. Trading volume is quite above average.
The price of green coffee in the Central Highlands provinces increased by 700 – 800 VND, fluctuating in the range of 67,300 – 68,200 VND/kg. Fresh coffee prices trade around 15,000 VND/kg.
Coffee futures prices continue to have mixed trends after the weather forecast in Brazil will have good rain next week, helping coffee trees increase productivity but causing New York futures prices to decline.
According to Barchart, the scarce supply of Robusta coffee has pushed spot coffee prices to a record high. Last week, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam reported that coffee exports for the whole year 2023 decreased by 9.6% compared to the previous year to only reach 1.60 million tons. In addition, Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development also forecasts that coffee output in the current crop year 2023/2024 may decrease by 10% to 1,656 million tons, the lowest crop in 4 years, due to weather. Meanwhile, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) has forecast that Vietnam’s 2023/2024 coffee production will decrease to 1.6 – 1.7 million tons, down from 1.78 million tons of the previous crop year.
Robusta coffee prices are supported by the ICE – London inventory level yesterday, Friday January 5, which decreased by 610 tons, or 1.74% compared to a week earlier, to register at 34,400 tons (about 573,333 bags, 60 kg bags), approximately the record low level in early September 2023.
DXY continues to decline, despite better-than-forecast US December employment data. The stock exchanges still remain green, putting commodity prices of all kinds at a disadvantage due to concerns about the prospect of interest rate cuts when the US economy is still growing strongly.
According to observers, the Reais – Brazilian currency increased by 0.71%, bringing the exchange rate to 1 USD = 4.8714 R$, causing Brazilians to reduce the sale of exported coffee, while the trade volume on both exchanges clearly decreased because investors are still standing outside the markets waiting and listening for more.
Coffee traders in the Southeast Asia region said that it will not be easy to buy Robusta coffee from farmers in this region if they do not offer a satisfactory price difference compared to the London futures price.
English (giacaphe.com)
