May Arabica coffee traded on Friday closed up 4.30 cents/pound at 224.65 cents/pound after climbing to 236.20 cents and Robusta coffee closed up $57 per ton, located at around $3,900, after touching a session high close to the price 30 years ago of $3,959 per ton.
The price of green Robusta coffee today, April 14, in key regions in the Central Highlands once again set a new record, when some places had purchasing prices up to 112,000 to 113,000 VND/kg.
Concerns about coffee crops in Brazil and Vietnam are boosting coffee futures purchases by funds. From a certain perspective, the current problem of drought and hot weather is more serious than the crop failure in Brazil in 1994 due to frost, because the current extreme weather phenomenon is occurring. widespread and affecting many producing countries.
The liquidation of coffee futures also appeared on Friday, causing prices to fall towards the end of the session as the Brazilian real fell to a six-month low against the dollar. It must be said that this is a very good time for investors on the exchange to liquidate their May buying positions.
The number of open contracts for Robusta coffee for the May term has begun to decrease from the most recent high of 50,978 lots on April 2 to 28,778 lots. However, this liquidation in the past 2 weeks has not caused Robusta prices to decrease, on the contrary, they have increased sharply.
Forecasts from the U.S. Government’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center have reported that there is a 60% chance that La Niña weather conditions will develop in August and continue through the period. the remainder of the year. La Nina weather patterns often follow El Nino and cause heavy rains in areas previously affected by El Nino droughts.
The intensity and duration of these weather patterns associated with warming or cooling, especially those in the Pacific Ocean, will be closely monitored.
In the case of La Niña, it is a cooling phenomenon that often causes drier weather in parts of the southern American continent, and excessive rainfall in equatorial regions can affect the Pacific Rim country.
Stocks of certified graded Arabica coffee held on the New York coffee market are said to have increased by 4,905 bags yesterday, reaching an inventory level of 637,405 bags.
Weather forecasts cause concern for Vietnam’s next crop output, as it is expected that at least the next 5 days will remain dry and without rain.
A leading major export trader in Vietnam said that while the country has enough coffee to cover exports for the remainder of the season, some farmers may continue to limit sales due to They hold the price waiting for a higher level.
The coffee market was also supported as hedge funds exited the cocoa market – where a huge shortage has sent prices soaring – and poured money into coffee.
“Speculators are comparing cocoa and coffee, which is surprising,” said Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera. The analyst added: “One big point that I can see is that all coffee trees are generally aging due to lack of care and in short, I see Vietnam’s coffee trees not thriving. development”.
Rabobank added that upcoming European deforestation regulations could spur a wave of buying before they take effect at the end of the year.
The price of Robusta coffee, the staple of India’s coffee production and a key ingredient in making instant coffee, has surged to an all-time high, reaching a staggering Rs 10,080 per bag. 50 kg on Friday (ie about 60,500 VND/kg).
This is the first time prices have risen to such high levels since the British established coffee plantations in the picturesque hills of Karnataka’s Western Ghats region around the 1860s.
Previously, Robusta coffee in India only maintained a relatively stable price from Rs 2,500 to Rs 3,500 per 50 kg bag for nearly 15 years (ie about 15,000 to 21,000 VND/kg).
Sources in the Coffee Board of India added that the price increase is also due to major Robusta coffee growing countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia switching to other crops that are more profitable than coffee. Additionally, they note that coffee is in increasing demand in the cosmetics industry.
Kinh Vu (giacaphe.com)
