Source: Institute of Policy and Strategy for Rural Development (IPSARD)
GENERAL SITUATION
According to ADB, GDP growth of the US economy in 2022 is forecast to reach 1.7%, adjusted up 0.1 percentage points compared to the forecast in September 2022, then will drop sharply to 0. 4% in 2023, adjusted down by 0.6 percentage points compared to September 2022. The latest data showed that the outlook for US investment and consumption softened due to tighter financial conditions. Consumer confidence fell from 98.9 points in October to 96.9 points in November, indicating a slowdown in consumption growth. However, earnings continued to rise as the labor market remained strong. The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 3.5% – 3.7% since March 2022. Inflation of the United States increased in 2022, at 8.0%, mainly due to factors such as high food and energy prices, and continued strong increases in service prices. To curb inflation, the Fed continued to raise interest rates to 0.75 percentage points in November, bringing the policy rate to about 3.75% – 4.00%. The Fed is expected in the near future to have changes, adjust monetary policy and possibly in early 2023, will continue to raise interest rates to maintain the fight against inflation.
According to data released by the US Department of Commerce recently, the US gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a rate of 3.2% in the third quarter of 2022, this is an adjustment compared to the level previously projected. expected to be 2.6% and compare with negative growth in the first 6 months. This reflects the increase in US exports and consumer spending over the past time and there is confidence in the market despite the current situation of prices, inflation is still high. In addition, the investment and business of related agencies and businesses also improved, reflected in the decrease in investment in housing, inventories, and imports, leading to the balance of trade. of the United States.
In that context, the two-way turnover exchange between Vietnam and the US is still very positive. According to the statistics of the General Department of Customs of Vietnam, the export turnover of AFF products from Vietnam to the United States in the first 11 months of 2022 reached 12.04 billion USD. (up 1% over the same period last year). Import of AFF products from this market reached about 3.28 billion USD (up 2.5% over the same period last year). Thus, in the first 11 months of 2022, the total import and export turnover of AFF products between Vietnam and the US reached 15.32 billion USD.
In November 2022, some of Vietnam’s main AFF exports to the US are wood and wood products. (accounting for 68%)Seafood (14%)cashew (8.2%). Compared to October 2022, the export turnover of a number of items decreased such as rubber down 27%, cashew nuts down 21%, rattan, bamboo, sedge and carpet products down 11%, the rest of the items were such as rice (up 63%), animal feed and raw materials (up 52.6%), pepper (up 22.5%), vegetables (up 14.6%), coffee (up 6.6%). 8%),…. (Details are in the attached appendix).
Detailed report can be found here.
