Source: Institute of Policy and Strategy for Rural Development
In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic caused a sharp decline in the growth rate of many economies around the world not seen in the past decades. Although the economies experienced a strong recovery in the third quarter of 2020, the road to return to normal remains slim as Covid-19 vaccine has been distributed in many countries, but the number of new cases is still fragile. increased at the end of the year, especially when new variants of Covid-19 appeared. Most international organizations have the same view that the global economy is unlikely to recover in the short term, but it will take many years. According to the latest forecast on February 16 by the International Monetary Fund, under the impact of the pneumonia epidemic caused by a new strain of the corona virus (COVID-19), global economic growth could decline 0, 1-0.2% compared with 3.3% according to previous forecast.
The Chinese economy is one of the largest in the world, which has escaped from the pandemic with positive signs. In the opinion of experts, that means that China’s economy will continue to grow faster than other economies. As expected, by 2021 China’s GDP will increase by 8.2%. At this rate, Asia’s leading economies can catch up with the US in Gross Domestic Product, not in the mid-2030s as analysts predict but sooner.
Experts from Japanese financial company Nomura concluded that the COVID-19 pandemic did not have as much of an impact on China’s national economy as it did in the US, and that China would catch up with the US by 2028. The country’s domestic currency is stronger, at about 6 yuan for 1 USD, the mark of catching up will be 2 years earlier. Currently, the average exchange rate is 6.9 yuan for 1 USD.
Experts from the US financial company JP Morgan Asset Management also calculated that within the next 8-10 years, China’s economy will catch up with the US. The analysts of the Chinese investment bank “China Renaissance” also approved the prediction.
According to data released by the General Statistics Office of China, CPI in January 2021 increased over the previous month and decreased compared to the same period in 2020. In terms of month, CPI increased by 1.0% MoM. Previous due to the proximity of festivals, domestic epidemics and cold weather. In which, food prices increased by 4.1%, contributing to a rise of the CPI by 0.78 percentage points. For food, due to cold weather, rain and snow in some areas, the cost of producing, preserving and transporting fresh vegetables has increased, and the price has increased by 19.0%; Due to the decrease in the stock of eggs and the disease affecting the egg export in some regions, the price of eggs increased by 11.1%. Due to the impact of high consumer demand before the holidays, rising food costs, prices of pork, beef and lamb increased by 5.6%, 1.2% and 2.7% respectively. Prices of non-food products increased by 0.3% MoM, affecting CPI to rise by about 0.22 percentage points. In the non-food category, gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas prices rose 4.2%, 4.6% and 5.0%, respectively, due to fluctuations in international crude oil prices.
Compared to the same period last year, because the Spring Festival took place in the wrong month, the figure compared to the same period last year was relatively high, the CPI from 0.2% increase in the previous month to 0, 3%. In which, food prices increased by 1.6% MoM, affecting the CPI increase of about 0.3 percentage points. In the food group, the price of fresh vegetables increased by 10.9%; pork prices decreased by 3.9%; prices of chicken and duck meat decreased by 10.7% and 6.8%, respectively, and the range narrowed. The price of non-food products decreased by 0.8%, impacting on the CPI drop of about 0.64 percentage point. Among non-food items, transportation and communication rates fell 4.6%, housing prices fell 0.4% and healthcare prices rose 0.4%.
The Chinese Communist Party’s 1st Central Document of 2021, officially published on February 21, 2021, describes a blueprint for China’s rural revival in the next stage. The year 2021 is the first year in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025), the proposed document by 2025, the modernization of agriculture and rural areas will achieve important progress, modernization. Agricultural infrastructure reaches a new level, initially creating favorable conditions for rural living facilities, equal at a basic level of urban and rural public services will be significantly improved. The results of poverty reduction have been strengthened and expanded, and the income gap between urban and rural areas continues to be narrowed.
According to General Secretary Xi Jinping, ensuring the efficient supply of important agricultural products is always at the forefront in the work of “three farming”, must maintain the initiative in food security, promote food products. annual food export. Firmly grasp the initiative in national food security, ensure stable production and supply of important agricultural products. However, it should be noted that now and in the future, the task of ensuring the quantity, diversity and quality of Chinese agricultural products is becoming more and more important. Especially in the context of a complex and increasingly unstable international environment, it is necessary to stick closely to the domestic base, manage its work well, firmly stabilize the agricultural foundation, and respond to the source of the party. in addition to the stability of domestic food production and supply. Always take the initiative in national food security. Take all measures to keep production area and output stable. The main food production sector, the consumer sector, the production and consumption co-ordination area all have to ensure the cultivated area and output, and share benefits and responsibilities.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of China, by the end of 2020, the number of pigs has recovered 92%, supply and demand of the global market is on a good growth, it is expected that in the second half of this year, live hog production and pork supplies will return to normal levels each year. Accordingly, from 2020, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has implemented a number of measures to support to restore pig production capacity and stabilize pig production, as well as market supply. Expectedly, in the first quarter of this year, around March, the price will increase about 40% over the same period last year. By the second quarter, around June, the pig herd may recover to the normal level of 2017. In the second half of the year, live hog production and pork supply will gradually return to normal levels. This year, in the Central Document No. 1 of the Communist Party of China, attaches great importance to this issue, calls for the protection of the basic production capacity of the pig industry and introduces a reasonable long-term mechanism for development. sustainable development of the pig industry.
Recently, severe meteorological droughts have occurred in provinces in southern China such as Zhejiang and Guangdong, and in some areas, droughts continued from last fall until last fall. this spring. According to statistics from the Ministry of Water Resources of China, as of January 26, 2021, 7.13 million acres of arable land nationwide have been affected by drought and 170,000 rural people have difficulty in drinking water. due to drought. Many cities, counties and towns in Zhejiang, Guangdong, Yunnan and other provinces are experiencing water shortages. Urgent measures such as limited, limited and pressured water supply need to be implemented to ensure basic drinking water, affecting about 1.4 million people.
According to analysis by Qian Yonglan, a senior researcher at the Center for Agricultural and Ecological Meteorology under the Central Meteorological Observatory, drought in the South will have certain adverse effects on vegetable growth. and crops grown in the autumn-winter season such as sugar cane. Because early rice has not been sowed on a large scale, it is currently less affected. However, starting at the end of February, early rice in South China (Guangdong, Guangdong, Guangxi) was sown and sowed from south to north, if continued low rainfall could affect sowing. sowing, seeding and sowing. According to the Deputy Director of the Climate Forecasting Office of the National Climate Center, told reporters that it is expected that this spring (March to May), temperatures will be higher and rainfall will be low. in central and east Jiangnan and central and southeast China, especially in Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Guangdong and other provinces. Below 2-50%, meteorological droughts in the aforementioned areas can be strengthened again, forming continuous “autumn, winter and spring” droughts. .
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China, during the Spring Festival, although the price of vegetables increases seasonally, the growth rate narrows significantly. In February (as of Feb. 21), the national average wholesale price of 28 vegetables monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 6.21 yuan / kg, up 8.8% from the previous month. the same period last year and the monthly increase of 5.6%, 10.1 percentage points lower than the average monthly increase in February over the past three years. Regarding varieties, the monthly prices of 19 types increased, 6 types decreased and 3 types remained unchanged. From a weekly price perspective, the average wholesale vegetable price for the 8th week (February 15-21) was 6.13 yuan / kg, down 4.2% from the previous month, indicating a rapid downward trend. seasonal after the holiday season.
According to a report by the Chinese Chamber of Commerce on Import and Export of food, indigenous products and animal by-products, China’s import value of fruit in 2020 will reach US $ 10,260 million, an increase of 8% compared to 2019. Meanwhile, the volume of imports reached 6,302 million tons, down 8% of the total volume of fruit imports, due to the impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on the worldwide supply chain. In terms of import value, the nine main types of Chinese imported fruits are durian, cherry, banana, mangosteen, fresh grape, dragon fruit, longan, kiwi and oranges (fresh and dried).
During the Lunar New Year this year, there was no big change in the prices of popular fruits for family use and gifts to relatives and friends. As of February 19, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development tracks the average monthly wholesale prices of 6 fruits at 6.39 yuan / kg, up 11.7% year-on-year and 4.7% over the previous month. In which, pear, pineapple and watermelon, Fuji apple increased by 59.3%, 27.9%, 19.6% and 6.3% respectively over the same period last year. However, there was also a decrease during the Spring Festival, such as the Kyoho grapes and bananas, which decreased by 7.4% and 4.2%, respectively. Over the same period, Kyoho, banana and Fuji apple increased by 9.0%, 7.5% and 5.1%. Prices for watermelon and pear also increased slightly.
Argentina’s agricultural exporters recently said that the South American country’s barley exports to China could hit a record close to 1 million tons this year, as Beijing is looking for homes. Another supplier to replace the traditional partner of this country is Australia (the export value of this item is about 800 – 1,300 million USD per year). Accordingly, the Argentine agricultural export companies have submitted to the Government a request to sell abroad, mainly to China, about 1.1 million tons of barley for animal feed in the 2020 crop- 2021, the harvest just ended a few weeks ago. The Latin American country is likely to reduce its wheat acreage to switch to barley, which is expected to produce about 4.2 million tons of barley in 2021-2022, up sharply from 3.8. million tons will be collected in crop year 2020-2021, mainly due to high demand from China.
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