That is a remark mentioned by the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) at the “Conference on summarizing the pepper year 2018 orientation of the mission plan 2019,” organized by VPA over the weekend in Ho Chi Minh City.
According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, VPA President, the most visible picture of Vietnam's pepper market throughout 2018 is the record low maintenance over the past 5 years despite the exciting market. At the beginning of the harvest season (March 2018), local black pepper prices fell to VND 55-60,000 / kg. In the middle of 2018, there was a time when it turned up VND 60,000 / kg but decreased to around VND 50,000 / kg at the end of the year. At present, pepper price in material areas ranges from 43 to 44 thousand VND / kg.
Unpredictable price fluctuations made the whole supply chain of pepper in 2018 much unstable, traders and raw material suppliers for exporters did not dare to trade strongly. At many times of the year, farmers find that the price of pepper is too low and the sale has forced businesses to import from Cambodia, Brazil and Indonesia when the prices of those countries are lower than in the country and the quality is more stable.
According to the General Department of Customs, in 2018, exports reached 235,889 tons of pepper of all kinds, gaining 774.7 million USD, compared to 2017 increasing by 9.7% in volume but down 30.8% in turnover. Vietnam has more than 120 enterprises participating in exporting pepper, if in 2016, there were 23 enterprises with turnover of over 20 million USD, there were 16 enterprises in 2017 and 8 enterprises in 2018.
According to Mr. Hai, the global pepper production in an uptrend caused prices to continue the downward trend, because the increase in demand was lower than the increase in output. In 2018, Vietnam achieved the highest export volume ever, but the value decreased by 30.8% compared to the previous year, due to the strong increase in global supply, mainly from Brazil, Cambodia and Vietnam. .
In 2019, the pepper area is starting to decrease and Vietnam is focusing on improving quality rather than quantity, among farmers who are on the trend of reducing the use of fertilizers, chemical pesticides, increasing the use of biological products. study, and try to develop organic pepper farms with food safety and environmental protection certification.
Forecast, world pepper production in 2019 will increase by 8.27% to 602 thousand tons, and Vietnam will continue to maintain its leading position in production output, about 250,000 tons and an estimated export of 235 thousand tons. .
In 2018, the country witnessed a serious shortage of labor in the pepper industry that caused farmers to abandon ripe or free pepper due to high labor costs. In 2019, it is forecasted that labor shortage pressure will increase, while pepper price forecast will not prosper.
From the perspective of the exporter, Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Management Board, General Director of Intimex Group said that pepper price is standing at 43-44 thousand VND / kg, in 2 or 3 years if the price is and the world pepper output will come down to our advantage, then the price will certainly rise again but the problem is how long we can hold out?
If pepper is sold below the price, farmers will not sell it, but now the price of Vietnamese pepper is said to be the lowest compared to other countries. Last time, pepper price remained at 44 thousand dong / kg, in the middle of the big harvest, but only a little bit down and now is still 44 thousand dong / kg, this price farmers can accept. receive.
“If pepper prices remain at their current low levels, other pepper growing countries will have a very high risk, so they are reducing the area and reducing the area, the supply and demand on the market will be stable. If Vietnam has reduced the area in some inefficient planting areas, and when overcoming this difficult period, pepper prices will definitely rise again, “Mr. Nam emphasized.
Last time pepper prices fell sharply so some countries like Sri Lanka, Indonesia began to reduce the area, Vietnam is also decreasing. If all countries reduce, the situation of world pepper will change in the near future. But in 2019, farmers continue to suffer the current low prices.
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