Although the supply is not enough, it is strange that Vietnam's pepper prices have suddenly dropped sharply in recent days. According to research, this is essentially the trick of international speculators, shaking hands to launch “virtual” prices on the floor to profit …
Just a “virtual” price
Many times, international pepper speculators are always waiting for the opportunity to link and drown the price of our country's pepper, because Vietnam is simply accounting for over 50% of global pepper export. Previously, there were years when pepper production did not increase, the output was not too redundant, but due to the hands of speculators “making prices”, the pepper price was pulled down to below 2,000 USD / ton (the lowest level of the period). green). And this time it seems that scenario is being repeated.
Vietnam's pepper export price in recent days only reached USD 6,000 / ton of black pepper and over USD 8,000 / ton of white pepper (down nearly USD 2,000 / ton compared to the peak period at the end of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012). . Many experts in the pepper industry assert: It is clear that the “hands” of speculators are digging into the world pepper market. Speculators (importers) after linking themselves have set the “virtual” price and put it on the trading floor in order to reduce the price of pepper in Vietnam.
However, farmers and export enterprises need to be very careful because the “virtual” price is extremely low on this floor is just trading … on paper, does not reflect real transactions in the market. As simple as in Vietnam, dealers collect pepper based on this “virtual” price to purchase the price of buying buckets (garden) of 120,000 VND / kg, but most farmers do not sell. Therefore, real transactions almost no, very quiet. According to the research, businesses stockpile from the beginning of the season until now, if calculating all expenses (interest on bank loans, warehousing, losses, labor …), the price cannot be less than 130,000 VND / kg, if exporting at the same price as At present, USD 6,000 / ton is definitely loss.
Regarding information that there have been export enterprises of Vietnam due to long distance signing, now the price of pepper has decreased or it has suffered losses or failed to comply with the contract, Mr. Tran Duc Tung – Chief of Office of Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) said: “The number of enterprises signing far away at a very disadvantageous price is very small, except for some businesses that are under pressure from loans, or some large enterprises dealing in multi-items account to record profit and loss business on many products (offset by again) then they can sell it at this price ”.
Prices will increase!
According to VPA, the global pepper supply for many years has been around 300,000 tons, the main reason is that the production cannot increase immediately because this is a long-term industrial crop (after 4 years to harvest). . Especially with a large investment (from VND 1 billion / ha), not all farmer households can invest. Pepper is also very fastidious, vulnerable to pests, so it is also easy to “empty-handed”.
These reasons make pepper not as easy to explode as other short-term crops, plus the increasing old area, making the supply in the global range quite stable. In particular, reserves of pepper in the world for many years have always been in a limited position, making speculators eager to launch many tricks to find cheap sources.
Meanwhile, global demand for pepper increases by 2 – 5% per year on average. In terms of supply – demand, completely beneficial for manufacturers and exporters. Therefore, in recent years, the price of black pepper from about 3,000 USD / ton has continuously increased to 8,000 USD / ton (in 2011 and the first quarter of 2012); white pepper from US $ 5,000 has increased to US $ 10,000 per ton (in 2011 and the first quarter of 2012).
This fact reflects the imbalance between supply and demand and there is no reason for prices to plummet when the supply is insufficient. This is also the reason why importers speculate pepper “hot face” and fear of the strength of the balance of over 50% of Vietnam's global pepper export market.
According to Mr. Tran Duc Tung, due to the information and forecasting work of the pepper industry is quite good, especially advising farmers not to sell pepper at the main season, but to coordinate to sell it evenly throughout the months of the year, in order to maximize Profitability has caused the current pepper market to shrink, not as desired by importers.
Vietnamese pepper enterprises also summarized lessons learned that they have to “play” in a farmer's way: When farmers do not sell goods, enterprises do not have necessary and sufficient goods and cannot sign far away. Businesses must “play cards” as an export service for growers (basically, “instant noodles”), buy anywhere they go, sell fast, shorten profits, but always make sure to eat.
VPA said, a recent survey of farmers and businesses (currently stocking about 40,000 – 45,000 tons of pepper) they all confirmed: If the export price of black pepper reached over 7,000 USD / ton, the domestic price of pepper reached over 140,000 VND / kg, they may sell. If this trend occurs, the amount of exported pepper in 2012 can reach 110,000 – 115,000 tons, total turnover of about 780 million USD. Conversely, if the above price is not reached, most farmers continue to stock and businesses if selling must be very careful about consideration and avoid long distance deals.
Follow Bui Nguyen (Vietnam Agriculture Newspaper)
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