According to the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA), international pepper speculators are using a series of tricks to evaluate the price of Vietnam pepper. Meanwhile, the International Pepper Association (IPC) has released inaccurate news that Vietnam will reach a record output even more detrimental to Vietnam's pepper exports …
Use “rumors” to “knock out” Vietnamese pepper!
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In the past few days, the pepper market has been a big surprise when the selling price has continuously decreased. In Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc, Dak Lak, the price of pepper has been “evaporated” by nearly 20 million VND / ton: From 130 – 135 million VND / ton to 115 – 120 million VND / ton and not signs of stopping. It started more than a dozen days ago, the International Pepper Association (IPC) did not know where to base, how to survey, suddenly announced: Vietnam's pepper output in 2012 crop will reach a record of 140,000. tons, up to 30,000 tons compared to 2011, making the global pepper market seriously impacted. It is simply that Vietnam is an exporter of more than 50% of the world's pepper market. The IPC forecast that Vietnam will increase its record production so it is true that only farmers are “dumbfounded”!
However, is Vietnam's pepper production exactly as announced by IPC? What is the nature of this gossip?
IPC said that Vietnam's pepper output increased to 30% completely unfounded
According to the research of NNVN, the situation of pepper production in key areas is completely opposite to the unfounded judgment of IPC. Specifically, in many famous pepper growing households, good farming techniques, many years for high yield, but this crop has decreased sharply due to abnormal weather and the area of old pepper increases sharply. At the household of Mr. Nguyen Ba Thinh (Hamlet 2, Loc An commune, Loc Ninh district, Binh Phuoc) cultivating 7,000 posts, equivalent to 4 ha, if in the 2011 crop there were 17 tons of dried black pepper, the 2012 crop would only be about 13 tons. , down to 23.5%. Similarly, in Ho Ta farmer's household (Hoa An hamlet, Nhon Hoa commune, Chu Pưh district, Gia Lai province) planting 2,000 pillars equivalent to 1 ha, in 2011 collecting 7 tons, in 2012 it was estimated at 6 tons. Especially, in farmer Tran Van Nuoi and Hoa An village planted 5,000 pillars equivalent to 2.5 ha, in 2011 collected 10 tons, in 2012 died of 4,000 pillars, the rest collected only 4 tons.
In the famous pepper area of Chu Se (Gia Lai), the situation is similar. Mr. Nguyen Van Luyen's household (Village 6, Ia Blang commune) planted 5 hectares, 32 tons in 2011 but in 2012 it was estimated to be 25 tons. Next to Le Phuoc Tuan's household is 3.5 hectares; in 2011, when collecting 15 tons, this year only 10 tons will be collected. According to many pepper growing households, in addition to unfavorable weather, pepper gardens that have been exploited for more than 10 years (estimated at 30-40% of the total area) have been degraded and their productivity has decreased. infected, some old and dying, the replanting of pepper on this land takes a few years to rotate.
What is the nature of this trick?
According to VPA, the survey results of the Eastern and Central Highlands provinces in February 2012 showed that Binh Phuoc pepper production decreased by 10-15%, Dak Nong was equivalent to 2011, Dak Lak increased by 5%, Gia Lai decreased. 5-10%, Dong Nai is down 30-40%, Ba Ria – Vung Tau is reduced by 5%. General overview of pepper production results in 2012 in the country in terms of output is estimated at 95,000 – 100,000 tons, down 10-15% compared to 2011.
However, IPC has given a “terrible” figure for Vietnam's pepper output for what purpose? Is it not true that international corporations and speculators have influenced IPC to lower the price of Vietnamese pepper to seek profit?
Need to be very alert, avoid falling into the trap of buying cheap collectors of international speculators
Talking to NNVN, Mr. Tran Duc Tung – Chief of VPA Office affirmed that only data of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam on pepper production, the only agency with national authority is legally valid. As before, all information is for reference only. In particular, IPC has no right to speak about Vietnam's pepper production. They base on where to rumor that Vietnam's 2012 pepper output reached 140,000 tons? There is information that, in fact, IPC is putting pressure to increase the fee of Vietnam for IPC membership. On the other hand, international speculators took the opportunity of IPC to bring this “rumor”, launched many tactics to force Vietnamese pepper prices to import and seek profits.
Many experts in pepper industry assert, Vietnam needs to be very alert before the tricks of international pepper speculators, especially India. Specifically, the Indian pepper in the golden age yielded nearly 100,000 tons, but in recent years, it is low at only 45,000 – 50,000 tons / year, not enough for more than 1 billion people in the country. Because production is not enough to eat, India must import in large quantities both for domestic supply and for export. India's pepper crop is harvested in the first quarter of each year (coinciding with Vietnam) and up to now, all Indian pepper has been consumed. They started turning to Vietnam to find sources of goods to speculate for the next months. Everyone knows that India is the world leader in trading, now they try to spread virtual news on Kochi and Sing, mainly aimed at Vietnam in order to lower prices, collect many cheap goods and until July 7/2012 onwards. launching products to sell, pushing prices to seek profits.
Meanwhile, Indonesia and Malaysia are the two countries that produce and export a lot of pepper after India. Before the current pepper war, they used the technique “Ly Son Son Ho”, if Vietnam was weak, misled by India and international speculators, massively pushing goods at low prices, they immediately jumped into importing Vietnamese pepper. Then wait until July 7/2012 for their new pepper harvest, then launched new products to sell at high prices, according to India.
On the Vietnamese side, up to now, the quantity of pepper consumed in people and enterprises is still quite large. Especially businesses that buy at a high price, plus “huge” interest rates on bank loans, are now forced to export to cut losses (mainly cutting bank interest rates) in order to turn around the grain. If Vietnamese enterprises increase cheap export, they will immediately be trapped by international and Indian speculators and at the same time, it will be difficult for enterprises to achieve the estimate (cheap export, cheap purchase) because the people are psychologically determined not to sell. when the price is low (not sold under VND 130 million / ton). An expert also warned that Vietnam should be wary of FDI enterprises trading pepper in Vietnam: In exports, they transfer cheap prices to their parent companies in order to avoid tax and thus distort market prices in Vietnam.
Mr. Tran Duc Tung – Chief of VPA Office: In the first quarter of 2012, Vietnam exported only about 31,000 tons of pepper, the remaining amount of up to 70,000 tons was still in Vietnam, so corporations and international speculators were eager to find ways to Vietnam massively sold. at low prices. Therefore, before the “war” is going to take place harshly, Vietnam's response solution is: Must be alert to every “trick” of the enemy, farmers agree to cooperate with businesses, so temporarily store goods in at current low prices.
Promoting lessons learned that pepper industry Vietnam has done over the past few years: holding, leading, coordinating export progress, market prices. Not rushing selling at a time, making prices down, waiting for export opportunities when prices rise in July, August and September onwards (the price may reach VND 150 – 160 million / ton of black pepper).
The current advantage is that the Government and the bank are drastically managing the macro economy, increasing credit, lowering interest rates, creating favorable conditions for farmers and businesses in production and business in the coming months. .
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