Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh – Permanent Vice President and General Secretary of the Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai) said that the year-end consumer price could even reach 90,000 – 100,000 VND / kg even when consumed in the home segment. Goods in foreign markets may decrease due to the impact of COVID-19 epidemic.
Positive signals from the beginning of the year
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In early 2021, the recovery trend of pepper prices was clearer. Accordingly, from the beginning of the year to March 6, pepper prices in the Central Highlands provinces and the South increased by about 13%, ranging from 57,500 to 59,000 VND / kg.
There was a time when pepper prices hit VND 60,000 / kg (Ba Ria – Vung Tau province) when the market showed good signs.
Chart: Duc Quynh
Talking to the writer, Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh – Permanent Vice Chairman cum General Secretary of the Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai) said that this year, crop consumption is lost and people do not take much care, so output drops sharply. . In Gia Lai province alone, output in crop year 2020-2021 is expected to decrease by 60-70%.
Mr. Binh said that agents and traders are increasing buying while the supply this year has decreased, leading to a sharp increase in prices.
Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA) said that nationwide, Vietnam’s pepper production in 2021 could decrease from 25-30% compared to 2020 to about 168,000-180,000 tons due to many old pepper garden and people reduce investment in care.
According to VPA data, pepper production in Binh Phuoc province can decrease by over 50%; Dak Nong decreased by 20% compared to the peak period in 2017. Dak Lak province alone cannot be reliably evaluated because the survey is only representative in the two districts of Cu Kuin and Buon Ho and productivity shows the difference between region.
Form a new price level
“Sales are currently active in Dak Nong province. Meanwhile, in other provinces there is no goods for sale ”, said Mr. Binh.
According to Mr. Nguyen Duy Tuong – Director of Bach Sinh Company Limited, the market is setting a new price level: 60,000 VND / kg.
“Farmers see many forecasts given that the price will increase this year can reach 70,000 VND / kg, so just sell just enough to solve the debt.
Those who have the conditions but lack local capital, they spend money on the deposit agent to advance to cover and wait for the price to rise, making the quantity of real goods circulating in the market scarce, ”said Mr. Tuong.
This position also added that agents did not dare to short sell, this is an extremely important factor to increase prices recently.
“This year, farmers have not harvested and brought to dealers. If there is a sale, the buying agent will not sell it. That has caused the market to circulate with an extremely small amount of goods, “said Mr. Tuong.
Pepper prices can reach 100,000 VND / kg?
Mr. Tuong said that the price mark of 70,000 in the crop year 2020-2021 is not difficult to achieve in the near future because at the beginning of the year, an important milestone of 60,000 VND / kg.
According to Binh, year-end pepper prices can even reach 90,000 – 100,000 VND / kg even when consumption in the restaurant segment in foreign markets may decrease due to the impact of COVID-19.
“Although consumption in the restaurant segment decreased, but in the segment of processed food is still good”, Mr. Binh said.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the trend of consumption of black pepper increased strongly thanks to the increase in foods containing black pepper in the fast food business in North America. Besides, the popularity of black pepper in traditional medicine also positively affects the demand for this commodity, especially in the Chinese and Indian markets.
Pepper export activities in the first month of the year recorded a positive growth. According to the estimate of the Import and Export Department, pepper exports in January 2021 reached 18 thousand tons, worth $ 51 million, up 21.9% in volume and 41.7% in value over the same period last year. last.
The average pepper export price in January 2021 was estimated at $ 2,833 / ton, up 2.4% over December 2020 and 16.2% over January 2020.
This agency forecasts that in the coming time, pepper prices will tend to increase. Vietnam’s pepper inventory from the previous crop is not much, while pepper output in 2021 is forecasted to be lower than in 2020.
Pepper harvest in the Central Highlands provinces has been delayed due to a recurrence of the COVID-19 epidemic. As expected, new products will appear on the market after February 20, 2021.
According to VietnamBiz
