According to IPC forecasts, global pepper output in 2012 is estimated at 320 thousand tons, an increase of more than 7% compared to last year.
The International Pepper Community (IPC) believes that black pepper prices will not fall, although production may increase in Vietnam and Indonesia. While India's output is expected to fall to only about 43,000 tons, pepper in Vietnam is better cared for than last year and Indonesian production is expected to be higher.
This, along with an increase in the inventory of importers, will keep prices stable, according to S Kannan, CEO of IPC based in Jakarta, Indonesia's capital.
Answering over the phone, Mr. S Kannan said that last year's importers held stocks that could last for only one month due to tight supplies, but this year, they may increase their inventories. Therefore, world pepper prices may stabilize at current levels of about US $ 7,000 / ton.
According to Mr. S Kannan, Vietnam is forecast to export about 125,000 tons of pepper in 2012. Vietnam, the largest pepper producer and exporter in the world, is estimated to export the first 6 months of this year. 62,000 tons of pepper of all kinds, equivalent to the export volume in the same period in 2011. However, the value of turnover has increased by 25% over the same period thanks to high prices. Vietnam's pepper output this year is forecast to reach 110,000 tons.
Importers are now expecting Indonesian crops to hit the market in the next few days. “Indonesia's pepper output this year is expected to reach about 41,000 tons, compared with 33,000 tons last year. However, Indonesian traders have sold some of their goods first. Therefore, the coming supply from this country will not affect the price much, ”Mr. S Kannan said.
IPC forecasts that India's pepper output this year will be below 40,000 tons, instead of 43,000 tons as previously forecast. “However, this decline will be offset by higher pepper production in Vietnam and Indonesia,” Mr. S Kannan added.
India's pepper exports have plummeted recently due to uncompetitive prices, low production and the depreciation of the Rupee.
Giatieu.com
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