According to IPC’s forecast, global pepper production in 2012 is estimated at 320,000 tons, up more than 7% compared to last year.
The International Pepper Community (IPC) believes that the price of black pepper will not decrease although production may increase in Vietnam and Indonesia. While India’s production is expected to drop to only about 43,000 tonnes, pepper in Vietnam is better cared for than last year and Indonesia’s production is expected to be higher.
This, coupled with an increase in importers’ inventories, should hold prices steady, said S Kannan, CEO of IPC based in Jakarta, the Indonesian capital.
Speaking by phone, Mr. S Kannan said that last year importers held only enough inventory for one month due to scarcity of goods, but this year, they may increase their inventory. Therefore, the world pepper price may stabilize at the current level of about 7,000 USD/ton.
According to Mr. S Kannan, Vietnam is forecast to export about 125,000 tons of pepper in 2012. Vietnam, the world’s largest pepper producer and exporter, is estimated to have exported in the first 6 months of this year. 62,000 tons of pepper of all kinds, equivalent to the export volume of the same period in 2011. However, the turnover value increased by 25% over the same period thanks to high prices. Vietnam’s pepper output this year is forecast to reach 110,000 tons.
Currently, importers are waiting for the Indonesian crop to be brought to the market in the next few days. “Indonesia’s pepper production this year is expected to reach about 41,000 tons, compared with 33,000 tons last year. However, Indonesian merchants sold a good amount first. So the upcoming supply from the country won’t have much impact on the price,” said S Kannan.
IPC forecasts that India’s pepper production this year will be less than 40,000 tons, instead of 43,000 tons as previously forecast. “However, this decline will be offset by higher pepper production in Vietnam and Indonesia,” added Mr. S Kannan.
India’s pepper exports in recent years have suffered a sharp decline due to uncompetitive prices, low output and the devaluation of the rupee.
Giatieu.com
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