Robusta coffee term 03/2023 (LRCH23) continued its slight decline, down 7 USD (-0.38%), closing price at 1,825 USD/ton.
The DXY ended sharply lower 1.17% to 103.88 after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the US non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.6 in December from 56.5 in November, besides just The services PMI also fell below 50, indicating a contraction in the sector that accounts for two-thirds of US economic activity. Along with the information about the employment and wage data released at the end of last week, causing the dollar price to drop sharply, it will be an impetus for the Fed to aggressively raise interest rates to prevent US inflation from staying at a low level. High levels prompted investors to withdraw from the commodity market to switch to stocks in general, leading to a decline in the price of two coffee floors.
According to a report by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, it is estimated that coffee exports, mainly Robusta, in 2022 have increased by 10.10% compared to the previous year. Besides, the Trade Authority in Sumatra reported that Robusta coffee exports in the first 8 months of the current coffee crop (Indonesian crop year April 2022 to March 2023) totaled 3,374 .284 bags, an increase of 1,196,246 bags, or an increase of 54.93% compared to the same period last year. This factor has had a negative impact on the price of Robusta coffee.
According to technical analysis, the technical indicators are still showing neutral signals and have not yet identified a clear price trend, but in terms of the influence of fundamental information, the coffee price has turned negative and short. In the short term, the price is expected to be under selling pressure, so it is expected that in the short term, the price will still struggle to accumulate and decrease to find support in the 1800 – 1900 range. Only when the price rises above MA 50 at 1883 and maintains above the psychological resistance level of 1900. The new uptrend is clearly established. Conversely, if it loses the 1800 level, Robusta can retest the old bottom 1750-1760.
HINTS BUY/SELL STRATEGY IN THE Session (refer).
NEW BUYING CL:
- Support zone 1: 1800-1805 USD,
- Support zone 2: 1780-1785 USD,
- Proportional buy, stop loss $1,766.
CL SELL DOWN:
- Resistance level 1: 1840-1845 USD,
- Resistance level 2: 1860-1865 USD,
- Proportional sell, stop loss $1883.
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