The price of pepper in 2017 is no longer as high as 2 years ago and it will hardly be as high as it was in 2014/2015, which is what anyone who is interested in pepper has noticed. However, since the beginning of May, the price seems to be falling faster, is it partly psychological?
Looking at the total global supply of pepper
2017 is a good year for many pepper growing regions of Vietnam. Along with a large area of pepper that broke out from 2010-2012 and now began to harvest, Vietnam’s pepper output has increased sharply compared to 2016, contributing about 30,000 tons to the global supply. In addition, two other large producing countries this year also increased production, namely India and Brazil. In the 2017 crop, India’s pepper production increased by about 7,000 tons compared to 2016. Brazil also produced about 10,000 tons higher than the previous year. Adding about 10,000 tons of Cambodia, in 2017 global supply may be 55,000-60,000 tons higher than the previous year.
Until now, it is not possible to have an exact figure of how much the global total supply in 2017 will be because from July to August, Indonesia and China, two countries that contribute significantly to the total global pepper supply, have just begun to harvest. However, with Indonesia, the IPC just had a survey in April 2017, said that the growth of pepper in major pepper growing regions such as Lampung, Bangka and East Kalimantan all showed the possibility that Indonesia would lose the crop, and the fruit was quite sparse. , the yield is lower than the previous year due to unfavorable weather in the last months of 2016 and prolonged severe drought. The output is forecasted to be lower than that of 2016. Also according to IPC, the world meteorological forecasting agency said Indonesia and Malaysia are the countries that are forecasted to be more heavily affected by El Nino in 2017 than in previous years. The drought will be more severe in the coming months so the pepper production of these countries may be affected in a bad way.
Therefore, it is estimated that the global output of pepper in 2017 will be about 460,000 tons, about 10% higher than in the 2016 crop year.
Some notes on the situation of world pepper demand in 2017
– India: According to the information of the Spices Board of India, the Indian pepper industry is still growing stronger and stronger. India is famous for over dozens of high-grade processed pepper products (premium) supplying not only the world food industry but also the pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries, especially for the US and European markets. . Therefore, despite being a large pepper producer, India always needs to import a large amount of pepper from countries including Vietnam. In the first 4 months of this year, the import volume did not decrease compared to 2015 and decreased compared to 2015. 2016. Therefore, India’s 2017 supply increased but almost did not participate in exports, not to mention increased imports.
– America: Statistics from HQVN show that in the first four months of 2017, the US’s pepper imports reached over 13,000 tons, higher than 2015 and down compared to 2016. Besides, some countries in Central and South America such as Mexico and Chile increased. strong. HQVN data shows that the amount of pepper exported to the US is still stable, (although some rumors from India suggest that the US is not buying Vietnamese pepper).
– Europe: Germany is still the traditional market of Vietnamese pepper, although the import volume in the first 4 months of 2017 decreased compared to 2016 but increased compared to 2015. The UK also nearly doubled the import volume compared to the same period of 2015 and 2016. The Russian market increased 4 times the import volume compared to the first 4 months of 2015, reaching about 400 tons/month at present. The Netherlands imported about 500 tons/month at the beginning of 2017, equivalent to the same period in 2016. Some markets such as Russia, Turkey, Belgium, Romania, and Sweden, the import volume increased more than before compared to the previous year;
– Asia: The United Arab Emirates is still the leading Asian importer of pepper from Vietnam, the import volume in the first 4 months of 2017 increased more than 2016, about 200 tons per month higher than the same period in 2015. Papue New Guinea increased impressively, 4 The first month of 2017 imported more than 4,762 tons from Vietnam while the same period in previous years did not. China also imported over 1,100 tons per month in 2017, higher than 2016 and 3 times higher than the same period in 2015. Sri Lanka did not import pepper from Vietnam in previous years, but in the first 4 months of 2017 it imported more than 1,500 tons.
– Africa: quite strong increase with Sudan, Algeria, Senegal, Gambia, Mali.
In general, although the price has decreased, Vietnam’s pepper trade is still not less active compared to the same period in previous years. Export volume in the first months of 2017 is always higher than the previous year. February 2017 exported 13,700 tons, 3,400 tons higher than February 2016, March 2017 exported 29,100 tons, about 5,000 tons higher than the same period in 2016. April 2017 exports 25,110 tons, still higher than April 2016 about 70 tons.
Currently, farmers from many key pepper growing regions such as Chau Duc, Xuyen Moc (BR-VT), Hon Quan, Loc Ninh (Binh Phuoc), Buon Ho, Cu Kuin (Dak Lak), Dak Song, Dak R’ Lap (Dak Nong), Chu Se (Gia Lai) said that the market price emitted from the beginning of May until now has always been lower, but all places have reported a small volume of transactions since the price is below 90,000 VND/kg of pepper. , most people still do not intend to sell at this time.
The weather is signaling unfavorable things for the new pepper crop. At this time, most pepper plants are forming flower buds in most places, but unlike every year, the scattered rain since February is making the garden soil always wet, causing the pepper roots (the most important part to decide the yield). plants) are at increased risk of pests and diseases. Most of the pepper gardens currently have a high density of nematodes, the pepper roots that have been damaged by fungal diseases will make it easier for the nematodes to invade and cause severe damage when the dry season comes, signaling that the new crop may go down. .
As a rule of many years, May – June is the time when countries reduce transactions, especially in Muslim countries, so the amount of pepper exports may slow down, buyers only perform contracts. signed, so the purchase volume may decrease, making it difficult for domestic prices to rebound in the second quarter.
However, the long-term picture of supply and demand for this “king of spices” may not be as perceived at the moment.
According to the report of the General Department of Vietnam Customs, exports in the first half of May 2017 reached 11,102 tons of pepper of all kinds, with a turnover of 69.69 million USD, up 11.31 % in volume but decreased by 16. 82% in value over the same period last year. The average export price of pepper in the period reached 5,376 USD/ton, down 5.22% compared to the average export price of April 2017 (Giatieu.com)
Follow VPA (peppervietnam.com)
Source link
